敗戦傾向
勝利平均と敗戦してしまった試合の平均の差分をとり、大きく差分があった値についてピックアップし分析したいと思います。
※3点差(1ポゼッションゲーム)による敗戦は、傾向を読むためのノイズになってしまうため除外をして計算しております。
琉球ゴールデンキングス
| PTS | 82.2 | 71.3 | -10.83 |
| FGM | 29.5 | 26.0 | -3.52 |
| FGA | 66.0 | 66.2 | 0.22 |
| FG% | 44.98% | 39.30% | -5.68% |
| 3FGM | 9.4 | 7.4 | -1.96 |
| 3FGA | 27.5 | 28.4 | 0.90 |
| 3FG% | 34.14% | 26.01% | -8.13% |
| FTM | 13.7 | 11.9 | -1.83 |
| FTA | 18.6 | 16.8 | -1.79 |
| FT% | 73.85% | 69.47% | -4.38% |
| OR | 13.6 | 13.3 | -0.29 |
| DR | 26.9 | 26.2 | -0.66 |
| TR | 40.5 | 39.6 | -0.94 |
| AS | 17.0 | 14.8 | -2.27 |
| TO | 11.5 | 11.8 | 0.30 |
| ST | 5.3 | 4.7 | -0.60 |
| BS | 2.4 | 2.1 | -0.25 |
| BSR | 2.9 | 2.3 | -0.55 |
| F | 17.4 | 17.9 | 0.53 |
| FO | 18.8 | 17.3 | -1.50 |
| EFF | 93.0 | 72.6 | -20.40 |
| 2FGM | 20.1 | 18.6 | -1.56 |
| 2FGA | 38.5 | 37.8 | -0.67 |
| 2FG% | 52.44% | 49.61% | -2.83% |
| Opp2ptFG% | 52.56% | 53.83% | 1.27% |
| Opp3ptFG% | 32.20% | 35.04% | 2.84% |
| PfT | 13.2 | 9.2 | -3.94 |
| PitP | 35.5 | 32.0 | -3.45 |
| SCP | 14.7 | 13.0 | -1.74 |
| FBP | 7.0 | 6.1 | -0.91 |
| PfT% | 16.01% | 13.02% | -3.0% |
| OppPfT% | 17.28% | 17.94% | 0.7% |
| PitP% | 43.32% | 44.72% | 1.40% |
| OppPitP% | 45.6% | 46.3% | 0.71% |
| SCP% | 17.9% | 18.1% | 0.14% |
| OppSCP% | 14.31% | 13.02% | -1.29% |
| SCP Rtg | 1.11 | 0.98 | -0.13 |
| OPPSCP Rtg | 104.02% | 97.31% | -0.067 |
| FBP% | 8.58% | 8.70% | 0.12% |
| OppFBP% | 12.58% | 12.65% | 0.07% |
| 2ptA% | 51.72% | 50.84% | -0.88% |
| Opp2ptA% | 56.96% | 59.43% | 2.47% |
| 3ptA% | 37.29% | 39.08% | 1.79% |
| Opp3ptA% | 33.52% | 30.97% | -2.55% |
| 2pt割合 | 49.11% | 51.84% | 2.73% |
| Opp2pt割合 | 56.07% | 56.93% | 0.86% |
| ペリメタ割合 | 5.79% | 7.12% | 1.33% |
| Oppペリメタ割合 | 10.44% | 10.58% | 0.15% |
| 3pt割合 | 34.03% | 31.44% | -2.59% |
| Opp3pt割合 | 29.94% | 29.35% | -0.58% |
| FT割合 | 16.87% | 16.72% | -0.14% |
| OppFT割合 | 13.99% | 13.72% | -0.27% |
| FT獲得率 | 28.55% | 25.65% | -2.90% |
| OppFT獲得率 | 24.24% | 24.78% | 0.54% |
| FT獲得率差分 | 4.31% | 0.88% | -3.44% |
| eFG% | 52.18% | 45.03% | -7.15% |
| OppeFG% | 51.14% | 54.13% | 3.00% |
| eFG差分 | 1.05% | -9.10% | -10.15% |
| Opppts | 77.10 | 84.11 | 7.02 |
| ORB% | 35.92% | 31.08% | -4.85% |
| OppORB% | 28.63% | 30.37% | 1.74% |
| ORB%差分 | 7.29% | 0.70% | -6.58% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.6% | -1.74% |
| OppDRB% | 64.1% | 68.9% | 4.85% |
| DRB%差分 | 7.3% | 0.7% | -6.58% |
| OFFRtg | 115.8 | 100.0 | -15.82 |
| DFFRtg | 108.70 | 117.98 | 9.28 |
| NetRtg | 7.14 | -17.97 | -25.11 |
| TORtg | 16.2 | 16.5 | 0.35 |
| TS% | 55.80% | 48.62% | -0.07 |
| OppTS% | 53.79% | 56.68% | 0.03 |
| pace | 70.3 | 70.3 | 0.01 |
| AST% | 45.04% | 44.45% | -0.59% |
| OppAST% | 44.88% | 47.17% | 2.29% |
| HOMEeFG% | 51.56% | 48.60% | -2.96% |
| HOMETS% | 55.45% | 52.10% | -3.35% |
| AWAYeFG | 52.70% | 43.25% | -9.45% |
| AWAYTS% | 56.10% | 46.88% | -9.21% |
| HOppeFG% | 50.67% | 54.73% | 4.06% |
| HOppTS% | 53.38% | 57.10% | 3.72% |
| AOppeFG% | 51.5% | 53.8% | 2.31% |
| AOppTS% | 54.1% | 56.5% | 2.34% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.5% | 0.35% |
| OppTOV% | 15.6% | 12.9% | -2.67% |
| POSSESSION | 71.12 | 71.25 | 0.14 |
| OppPOSSESSION | 71.12 | 71.25 | 0.14 |
| Shot Chances | 85.65 | 85.38 | -0.27 |
| Opp Shot Chances | 82.99 | 83.64 | 0.65 |
| 攻撃成功回数 | 74.17 | 73.60 | -0.57 |
| Opp攻撃成功回数 | 71.83 | 74.42 | 2.59 |
| AST/ TOV | 1.64 | 1.27 | -0.37 |
| OppAST/ TOV | 1.72 | 2.16 | 0.44 |
| TOM | 1.51 | 1.41 | -0.10 |
| TDM | 2.18 | 1.61 | -0.58 |
| VPS | 123.0 | 111.2 | -11.85 |
| OppVPS | 112.9 | 124.7 | 11.79 |
| ASTRtg | 24.0 | 20.7 | -3.36 |
| OppASTRtg | 22.9 | 26.0 | 3.1 |
| P % | 41.65% | 36.38% | -5.28% |
| OppP % | 41.22% | 45.11% | 3.89% |
| LiveTOV割合 | 50.59% | 58.80% | 8.21% |
| DeadTOV割合 | 49.41% | 41.20% | -8.21% |
| LiveTOV% | 8.47% | 9.81% | 1.34% |
| DeadTOV% | 7.72% | 6.73% | -0.99% |
| FT Freq | 42.45% | 42.68% | 0.2% |
| OR Chances | 38.10 | 42.00 | 3.90 |
| DR Chances | 37.81 | 37.67 | -0.14 |
| Diff R Chances | 0.29 | 4.33 | 4.05 |
| PIE | 0.53 | 0.39 | -0.15 |
| FGM +FTD | 37.70 | 33.38 | -4.31 |
| OppMin | 201.19 | 202.78 | 1.59 |
| OppPTS | 77 | 84 | 7.02 |
| OppFGM | 29.21 | 32.11 | 2.90 |
| OppFGA | 64.98 | 67.33 | 2.36 |
| OppFG% | 45.11% | 47.88% | 0.03 |
| Opp3FGM | 7.79 | 8.33 | 0.55 |
| Opp3FGA | 24.07 | 23.11 | -0.96 |
| Opp3FG% | 32.20% | 35.04% | 0.03 |
| OppFTM | 10.88 | 11.56 | 0.67 |
| OppFTA | 15.57 | 16.11 | 0.54 |
| OppFT% | 0.70 | 0.72 | 0.02 |
| OppOR | 10.93 | 11.44 | 0.52 |
| OppDR | 24.48 | 28.67 | 4.19 |
| OppTR | 35.40 | 40.11 | 4.71 |
| OppAS | 16.26 | 18.56 | 2.29 |
| OppTO | 11.17 | 9.22 | -1.94 |
| OppST | 6.00 | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| OppBS | 2.88 | 2.33 | -0.55 |
| OppBSR | 2.36 | 2.11 | -0.25 |
| OppF | 19.12 | 17.44 | -1.67 |
| OppFO | 17.10 | 17.56 | 0.46 |
| OppEFF | 81.5 | 101.0 | 19.45 |
| PfTRtg | 1.19 | 1.01 | -0.18 |
| OppPfTRtg | 1.17 | 1.28 | 0.11 |
| FTD% | 10.99% | 10.08% | -0.91% |
| OppFTD% | 9.52% | 9.61% | 0.09% |
| HOMEFT% | 75.50% | 73.27% | -2.23% |
| AWAYFT% | 72.12% | 67.57% | -4.55% |
| OppLiveTOV割合 | 48.23% | 53.18% | 4.94% |
| OppDeadTOV割合 | 51.77% | 46.82% | -4.94% |
| OppLiveTOV% | 7.37% | 6.58% | -0.79% |
| OppDeadTOV% | 8.22% | 6.33% | -1.9% |
| HOFFRtg | 116.11 | 104.38 | -11.73 |
| HDFFRtg | 108.88 | 121.42 | 12.54 |
| AOFFRtg | 115.61 | 97.83 | -17.78 |
| ADFFRtg | 108.55 | 116.26 | 7.71 |
| HOME2FG％ | 52.16% | 50.83% | -1.33% |
| HOME3FG％ | 32.80% | 30.57% | -2.23% |
| AWAY2FG％ | 52.67% | 49.00% | -3.67% |
| AWAY3FG％ | 35.09% | 23.73% | -11.36% |
| HOppFT% | 71.19% | 75.60% | 4.41% |
| AOppFT% | 69.90% | 70.25% | 0.35% |
| HOpp2FG％ | 52.83% | 57.33% | 4.51% |
| HOpp3FG% | 31.46% | 34.13% | 2.68% |
| AOpp2FG％ | 52.34% | 52.08% | -0.26% |
| AOpp3FG% | 32.82% | 35.50% | 2.68% |
12回しか負けていませんが何方かと言えば、オフェンスが勝敗の鍵になっています。
強みの部分であるオフェンスリバウンド、不安のあったターンオーバーに大きな変化は見られず、試合のペースも自分たちのゲームで進めていました。
では何が大きな要因となったのか、それは3ポイント決定率の大幅低下です。
試投自体は若干増え、決定率は8%ダウン。
他のスタッツと合わせてみてみると、アシストの割合は下がって然るべきですが、ほとんど下がっていません。さらにペリメタの割合が上がっていることも併せて考えてみると1対1のシチュエーション、そしてプルアップ３が増えているためにほかなりません。
本数的には変わらないため見落としがちですが、生命線となるオフェンスリバウンド獲得率-4%も見逃せません。
ディフェンスも見てみると、こちらも若干ですが被3FG%が上がっています。
非常に興味深いのは、相手の３pt試投割合が下がっている（自分たちのディフェンスができている）にも関わらず 被3FG%が上がっている点は興味深いところでしょう。
千葉ジェッツ
| シーズン平均 | 敗戦平均 | 平均との差分 | |
| PTS | 85.7 | 76.7 | -9.05 |
| FGM | 31.1 | 28.2 | -2.91 |
| FGA | 70.4 | 70.8 | 0.41 |
| FG% | 44.34% | 39.95% | -4.39% |
| 3FGM | 10.4 | 7.8 | -2.66 |
| 3FGA | 31.6 | 30.2 | -1.41 |
| 3FG% | 32.96% | 26.22% | -6.73% |
| FTM | 13.0 | 12.5 | -0.56 |
| FTA | 17.4 | 17.0 | -0.40 |
| FT% | 74.83% | 72.81% | -2.02% |
| OR | 13.0 | 14.2 | 1.21 |
| DR | 26.7 | 26.7 | -0.05 |
| TR | 39.8 | 40.9 | 1.16 |
| AS | 17.9 | 15.8 | -2.16 |
| TO | 10.7 | 13.2 | 2.42 |
| ST | 6.5 | 6.2 | -0.32 |
| BS | 3.7 | 3.2 | -0.48 |
| BSR | 3.0 | 3.8 | 0.75 |
| F | 19.3 | 20.5 | 1.23 |
| FO | 18.7 | 18.6 | -0.05 |
| EFF | 95.5 | 76.6 | -18.88 |
| 2FGM | 20.7 | 20.5 | -0.25 |
| 2FGA | 38.7 | 40.5 | 1.82 |
| 2FG% | 53.56% | 50.60% | -2.96% |
| Opp2ptFG% | 50.84% | 55.07% | 4.23% |
| Opp3ptFG% | 36.21% | 35.90% | -0.31% |
| PfT | 15.71 | 12.62 | -3.10 |
| PitP | 36.2 | 35.1 | -1.16 |
| SCP | 14.5 | 15.1 | 0.55 |
| FBP | 9.8 | 9.0 | -0.81 |
| PfT% | 18.2% | 16.3% | -1.9% |
| OppPfT% | 15.8% | 20.1% | 4.3% |
| PitP% | 42.42% | 45.56% | 3.14% |
| OppPitP% | 40.36% | 42.13% | 1.76% |
| SCP% | 17.12% | 19.68% | 2.56% |
| OppSCP% | 15.07% | 17.17% | 2.11% |
| SCP Rtg | 1.18 | 1.10 | -0.08 |
| OPPSCP Rtg | 1.03 | 1.11 | 0.081 |
| FBP% | 11.39% | 11.75% | 0.36% |
| OppFBP% | 13.28% | 14.34% | 1.06% |
| 2ptA% | 49.71% | 51.92% | 2.21% |
| Opp2ptA% | 50.57% | 49.94% | -0.63% |
| 3ptA% | 40.53% | 38.56% | -1.97% |
| Opp3ptA% | 38.07% | 38.50% | 0.43% |
| 2pt割合 | 48.58% | 53.30% | 4.72% |
| Opp2pt割合 | 46.55% | 48.44% | 1.89% |
| ペリメタ割合 | 6.16% | 7.74% | 1.59% |
| Oppペリメタ割合 | 6.19% | 6.31% | 0.12% |
| 3pt割合 | 36.26% | 30.66% | -5.60% |
| Opp3pt割合 | 37.63% | 36.42% | -1.21% |
| FT割合 | 15.16% | 16.04% | 0.88% |
| OppFT割合 | 15.82% | 15.14% | -0.68% |
| FT獲得率 | 24.86% | 24.10% | -0.76% |
| OppFT獲得率 | 29.62% | 29.97% | 0.35% |
| FT獲得率差分 | -4.77% | -5.87% | -1.11% |
| eFG% | 51.78% | 45.45% | -6.32% |
| OppeFG% | 52.30% | 55.18% | 2.87% |
| eFG差分 | -0.53% | -9.72% | -9.19% |
| Opppts | 81.98 | 90.31 | 8.33 |
| ORB% | 31.95% | 32.61% | 0.66% |
| OppORB% | 31.07% | 34.02% | 2.95% |
| ORB%差分 | 0.88% | -1.41% | -2.29% |
| DRB% | 68.93% | 65.98% | -2.95% |
| OppDRB% | 68.05% | 67.39% | -0.66% |
| DRB%差分 | 0.88% | -1.41% | -2.29% |
| OFFRtg | 114.80 | 100.60 | -14.19 |
| DFFRtg | 109.58 | 118.88 | 9.30 |
| NetRtg | 5.22 | -18.27 | -23.49 |
| TORtg | 14.3 | 17.2 | 2.95 |
| TS% | 55.05% | 49.05% | -0.06 |
| OppTS% | 55.1% | 57.4% | 0.02 |
| pace | 74.36 | 75.42 | 1.06 |
| AST% | 46.26% | 44.55% | -1.71% |
| OppAST% | 52.66% | 54.49% | 1.83% |
| HOMEeFG% | 52.53% | 47.51% | -5.02% |
| HOMETS% | 56.06% | 51.25% | -4.81% |
| AWAYeFG | 50.86% | 42.16% | -8.70% |
| AWAYTS% | 53.83% | 45.52% | -8.31% |
| HOppeFG% | 51.93% | 54.45% | 2.52% |
| HOppTS% | 55.08% | 57.31% | 2.23% |
| AOppeFG% | 52.75% | 56.34% | 3.59% |
| AOppTS% | 55.05% | 57.66% | 2.61% |
| TOV% | 14.28% | 17.23% | 2.95% |
| OppTOV% | 18.25% | 15.84% | -2.41% |
| POSSESSION | 74.8 | 76.1 | 1.32 |
| OppPOSSESSION | 74.8 | 76.1 | 1.32 |
| Shot Chances | 88.8 | 91.4 | 2.65 |
| Opp Shot Chances | 88.4 | 91.1 | 2.70 |
| 攻撃成功回数 | 78.0 | 78.2 | 0.23 |
| Opp攻撃成功回数 | 74.7 | 79.0 | 4.24 |
| AST/ TOV | 1.9 | 1.3 | -0.60 |
| OppAST/ TOV | 1.6 | 2.1 | 0.51 |
| TOM | 1.79 | 1.72 | -0.07 |
| TDM | 1.84 | 1.64 | -0.21 |
| VPS | 125.9 | 117.9 | -7.96 |
| OppVPS | 122.2 | 134.0 | 11.74 |
| ASTRtg | 24.0 | 20.8 | -3.29 |
| OppASTRtg | 26.6 | 30.1 | 3.6 |
| P % | 41.74% | 37.05% | -4.69% |
| OppP % | 39.22% | 43.17% | 3.95% |
| LiveTOV割合 | 62.84% | 65.92% | 3.07% |
| DeadTOV割合 | 37.16% | 34.08% | -3.07% |
| LiveTOV% | 8.97% | 11.27% | 2.30% |
| DeadTOV% | 5.31% | 5.96% | 0.66% |
| FT Freq | 0.41 | 0.40 | -0.8% |
| OR Chances | 40.4 | 43.1 | 2.72 |
| DR Chances | 39.2 | 41.0 | 1.76 |
| Diff R Chances | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.96 |
| PIE | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.13 |
| FGM +FTD | 38.8 | 35.7 | -3.09 |
| OppMin | 201.8 | 203.8 | 2.06 |
| OppPTS | 82.0 | 90.3 | 8.33 |
| OppFGM | 29.4 | 32.8 | 3.49 |
| OppFGA | 66.2 | 69.8 | 3.60 |
| OppFG% | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.03 |
| Opp3FGM | 10.2 | 11.0 | 0.81 |
| Opp3FGA | 28.5 | 30.4 | 1.93 |
| Opp3FG% | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.00 |
| OppFTM | 13.1 | 13.6 | 0.54 |
| OppFTA | 19.5 | 20.9 | 1.45 |
| OppFT% | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.02 |
| OppOR | 12.5 | 14.3 | 1.81 |
| OppDR | 27.3 | 28.8 | 1.51 |
| OppTR | 39.8 | 43.2 | 3.32 |
| OppAS | 19.9 | 22.9 | 3.04 |
| OppTO | 13.6 | 12.1 | -1.54 |
| OppST | 6.8 | 8.6 | 1.85 |
| OppBS | 2.9 | 3.9 | 1.07 |
| OppBSR | 3.7 | 3.5 | -0.13 |
| OppF | 18.8 | 18.3 | -0.45 |
| OppFO | 19.1 | 20.0 | 0.88 |
| OppEFF | 91.2 | 110.6 | 19.45 |
| PfTRtg | 1.2 | 1.1 | -0.09 |
| OppPfTRtg | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.18 |
| FTD% | 9.76% | 9.52% | -0.24% |
| OppFTD% | 11.36% | 11.55% | 0.20% |
| HOMEFT% | 77.72% | 74.08% | -3.64% |
| AWAYFT% | 72.27% | 70.78% | -1.49% |
| OppLiveTOV割合 | 47.82% | 51.89% | 4.08% |
| OppDeadTOV割合 | 52.18% | 48.11% | -4.08% |
| OppLiveTOV% | 8.63% | 7.97% | -0.66% |
| OppDeadTOV% | 0.10 | 0.08 | -1.8% |
| HOFFRtg | 116.8 | 105.1 | -11.66 |
| HDFFRtg | 110.9 | 118.4 | 7.42 |
| AOFFRtg | 112.4 | 93.4 | -19.02 |
| ADFFRtg | 107.9 | 119.7 | 11.77 |
| HOME2FG％ | 54.73% | 52.53% | -2.20% |
| HOME3FG％ | 33.39% | 27.94% | -5.45% |
| AWAY2FG％ | 52.15% | 47.52% | -4.63% |
| AWAY3FG％ | 32.61% | 23.48% | -9.13% |
| HOppFT% | 71.17% | 68.56% | -2.60% |
| AOppFT% | 64.50% | 61.06% | -3.44% |
| HOpp2FG％ | 50.97% | 56.61% | 5.65% |
| HOpp3FG% | 35.66% | 33.00% | -2.66% |
| AOpp2FG％ | 50.68% | 52.60% | 1.92% |
| AOpp3FG% | 36.88% | 40.54% | 3.66% |
| OppPfT | 13.05 | 18.08 | 5.0 |
| OppPitP | 33.24 | 38.00 | 4.8 |
| OppSCP | 12.4 | 15.5 | 3.1 |
| OppFBP | 11.0 | 12.9 | 1.9 |
千葉ジェッツもどちらかと言えば、オフェンスが勝敗のカギになります。
そしてこちらも3ポイント決定率となります。特にアウェイでの決定率-9%は苦しいところ。
3ポイント試投割合にほぼ変動が見られず、アシストの割合が低くなっているところを見ると、おそらくキックアウト３の決定率が下降しているものと思われます（本数的にも3fgMが2本減少、アシストも2本減少）
その他TOV%とくにLiveTOV%の上昇がみられます。琉球という相手を考えるとそこまでスティールを狙ってくるチームではないため決勝の敗因となるかは未知数です。
ディフェンスを見てみると、被試投割合に変化が見られないものの、2ポイントの被決定率が高くなっています。さらにDR獲得率が65%まで下降、伴って被SCP%が上昇しています。
直接対戦分析
なし
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