今年もやってまいりました天皇杯!セミファイナルのカードををスタッツと戦略から徹底分析していきたいと思います!
リーグ序盤は3勝11敗と奮わなかったものの、12月からは12勝6敗と絶好調!広島ドラゴンフライズ vs 鉄壁のディフェンスで死の中地区を2位で走るアルバルク東京 の対決を分析します!
※スタッツの計算式は BasketBallReference 参照
※ディフェンススタッツは、下位の方が高評価になります

広島ドラゴンフライズHEALTHY!
オフェンススタッツ
オフェンス | 平均 |
3FGA | 30.5 |
3FG% | 36.79% |
HOME3FG% | 35.76% |
AWAy3FG% | 38.08% |
FT% | 78.12% |
HOMEFT% | 79.64% |
AWAYFT% | 76.2% |
2FG% | 50.0% |
HOME2FG% | 50.10% |
AWAy2FG% | 49.79% |
PfT% | 18.94% |
PitP% | 37.52% |
SCP% | 13.26% |
SCPRtg | 0.98 |
FBP% | 11.64% |
PfTRtg | 1.184 |
2ptA% | 48.47% |
3ptA% | 42.1% |
2pt割合 | 43.6% |
ペリメタ割合 | 6.1% |
3pt割合 | 41.54% |
FT割合 | 14.9% |
FT獲得率 | 24.00% |
FTD% | 9.44% |
eFG% | 52.68% |
TS% | 56.00% |
HOMEeFG% | 51.7% |
HOMETS% | 55.4% |
AWAYeFG | 53.9% |
AWAYTS% | 56.8% |
ORB% | 28.3% |
OR Chances | 37.67 |
OFFRtg | 110.9 |
NETRtg | 2.6 |
HOFFRtg | 110.5 |
AOFFRtg | 111.4 |
AST% | 51.0% |
ASTRtg | 24.8 |
TOV% | 16.52% |
LiveTOV% | 8.54% |
DeadTOV% | 8.0% |
pace | 72.0 |
POSSESSION | 73.0 |
Shot Chances | 84.5 |
攻撃成功回数 | 72.52 |
AST/TOV | 1.8 |
TOM | 1.62 |
VPS | 119.1 |
P % | 39.60% |
FT Freq | 36.4% |
・3ポイントチームに拍車がかかっているが決定率も上昇
・攻撃効率はリーグ10位
・実質シュート決定率はリーグ5位相当
・TOV%はリーグポジティブに8位
・
ディフェンススタッツ
ディフェンス | 平均 |
Opp2FG% | 51.66% |
Opp3FG% | 33.30% |
OppPfT% | 18.20% |
OppPitP% | 45.31% |
OppSCP% | 15.4% |
OppSCPRtg | 0.95 |
OppFBP% | 12.85% |
OppPfTRtg | 1.2 |
Opp2ptA% | 50.27% |
Opp3ptA% | 40.03% |
Opp2pt割合 | 49.17% |
Oppペリメタ割合 | 3.85% |
Opp3pt割合 | 37.59% |
OppFT割合 | 13.24% |
OppFT獲得率 | 24.86% |
OppFTD% | 9.7% |
OppeFG% | 51.11% |
OppTS% | 53.07% |
HOppeFG% | 51.95% |
HOppTS% | 53.19% |
AOppeFG% | 50.05% |
AOppTS% | 52.91% |
OppORB% | 32.9% |
DRB% | 67.1% |
OppDRB% | 71.7% |
DR Chances | 40.4 |
DFFRtg | 108.2 |
HDFFRtg | 108.1 |
ADFFRtg | 108.4 |
OppAST% | 52.1% |
OppASTRtg | 25.9 |
OppTOV% | 17.77% |
OppLiveTOV% | 8.7% |
OppDeadTOV% | 9.1% |
Opp Shot Chances | 87.5 |
Opp攻撃成功回数 | 74.5 |
OppAST/TOV | 1.6 |
TDM | 1.8 |
OppVPS | 119.8 |
OppP % | 40.3% |
HOpp2FG% | 50.11% |
HOpp3FG% | 35.93% |
AOpp2FG% | 53.59% |
AOpp3FG% | 30.01% |
OppFT Freq | 37.48% |
・ディフェンシブレーティングはリーグワースト5位の113から中位程度の108まで減少している
・相手の3ポイントアテンプトが上昇。アウェイではリーグトップクラス
・DR%はリーグ下位
勝利傾向
チーム平均値と勝利平均を比較して差分を見てみます。
オフェンス
オフェンス | 広島HEALTHY!平均 | 広島HEALTHY!勝利平均 | |
3FGA | 30.5 | 29.83333333 | -0.7 |
3FG% | 36.79% | 38.03% | 1.24% |
HOME3FG% | 35.76% | 38.30% | 2.54% |
AWAy3FG% | 38.08% | 37.77% | -0.31% |
FT% | 78.12% | 78.88% | 0.77% |
HOMEFT% | 79.64% | 81.15% | 1.51% |
AWAYFT% | 76.2% | 76.6% | 0.4% |
2FG% | 50.0% | 52.5% | 2.5% |
HOME2FG% | 50.10% | 53.20% | 3.10% |
AWAy2FG% | 49.79% | 51.80% | 2.01% |
PfT% | 18.94% | 19.44% | 0.51% |
PitP% | 37.52% | 39.50% | 1.98% |
SCP% | 13.26% | 12.84% | -0.41% |
SCPRtg | 0.98 | 1.01 | 0.02 |
FBP% | 11.64% | 11.09% | -0.56% |
PfTRtg | 1.184 | 1.219 | 0.03 |
2ptA% | 48.47% | 49.17% | 0.70% |
3ptA% | 42.1% | 41.7% | -0.4% |
2pt割合 | 43.6% | 44.8% | 1.2% |
ペリメタ割合 | 6.1% | 5.3% | -0.8% |
3pt割合 | 41.54% | 41.34% | -0.20% |
FT割合 | 14.9% | 13.8% | -1.0% |
FT獲得率 | 24.00% | 23.05% | -0.95% |
FTD% | 9.44% | 9.10% | -0.33% |
eFG% | 52.68% | 55.13% | 2.45% |
TS% | 56.00% | 58.17% | 2.17% |
HOMEeFG% | 51.7% | 55.3% | 3.6% |
HOMETS% | 55.4% | 58.1% | 2.7% |
AWAYeFG | 53.9% | 55.0% | 1.1% |
AWAYTS% | 56.8% | 58.2% | 1.5% |
ORB% | 28.3% | 28.7% | 0.4% |
OR Chances | 37.67 | 35.75 | (1.92) |
OFFRtg | 110.9 | 114.4 | 3.50 |
NETRtg | 2.6 | 11.14 | 8.50 |
HOFFRtg | 110.5 | 115.7 | 5.28 |
AOFFRtg | 111.4 | 113.0 | 1.62 |
AST% | 51.0% | 50.2% | -0.8% |
ASTRtg | 24.8 | 25.2 | 0.38 |
TOV% | 16.52% | 16.41% | -0.11% |
LiveTOV% | 8.54% | 8.87% | 0.33% |
DeadTOV% | 8.0% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
pace | 72.0 | 71.9 | (0.1) |
POSSESSION | 73.0 | 72.6 | (0.4) |
Shot Chances | 84.5 | 83.5 | -1.06 |
攻撃成功回数 | 72.52 | 71.62 | -0.90 |
AST/TOV | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.11 |
TOM | 1.62 | 1.48 | -0.14 |
VPS | 119.1 | 121.8 | 2.72 |
P % | 39.60% | 41.44% | 1.84% |
FT Freq | 36.4% | 35.0% | -1.4% |
ディフェンス
ディフェンス | 広島HEALTHY!平均 | 広島HEALTHY!勝利平均 | 差分 |
Opp2FG% | 51.66% | 49.04% | -2.61% |
Opp3FG% | 33.30% | 30.33% | -2.97% |
OppPfT% | 18.20% | 18.57% | 0.37% |
OppPitP% | 45.31% | 46.81% | 1.50% |
OppSCP% | 15.4% | 15.6% | 0.1% |
OppSCPRtg | 0.95 | 0.84 | (0.11) |
OppFBP% | 12.85% | 12.26% | -0.59% |
OppPfTRtg | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
Opp2ptA% | 50.27% | 50.86% | 0.59% |
Opp3ptA% | 40.03% | 40.16% | 0.13% |
Opp2pt割合 | 49.17% | 50.19% | 1.02% |
Oppペリメタ割合 | 3.85% | 3.37% | -0.48% |
Opp3pt割合 | 37.59% | 36.54% | -1.06% |
OppFT割合 | 13.24% | 13.28% | 0.04% |
OppFT獲得率 | 24.86% | 22.75% | -2.11% |
OppFTD% | 9.7% | 9.0% | -0.7% |
OppeFG% | 51.11% | 47.67% | -3.44% |
OppTS% | 53.07% | 49.97% | -3.10% |
HOppeFG% | 51.95% | 48.30% | -3.65% |
HOppTS% | 53.19% | 49.22% | -3.97% |
AOppeFG% | 50.05% | 47.03% | -3.02% |
AOppTS% | 52.91% | 50.72% | -2.20% |
OppORB% | 32.9% | 33.4% | 0.5% |
DRB% | 67.1% | 66.6% | -0.5% |
OppDRB% | 71.7% | 71.3% | -0.4% |
DR Chances | 40.4 | 42.3 | 1.9 |
DFFRtg | 108.2 | 103.2 | (5.0) |
HDFFRtg | 108.1 | 102.0 | (6.1) |
ADFFRtg | 108.4 | 104.5 | (3.9) |
OppAST% | 52.1% | 54.2% | 2.1% |
OppASTRtg | 25.9 | 25.7 | (0.2) |
OppTOV% | 17.77% | 18.52% | 0.74% |
OppLiveTOV% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 0.5% |
OppDeadTOV% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 0.2% |
Opp Shot Chances | 87.5 | 88.4 | 1.0 |
Opp攻撃成功回数 | 74.5 | 75.0 | 0.5 |
OppAST/TOV | 1.6 | 1.5 | (0.1) |
TDM | 1.8 | 1.5 | (0.3) |
OppVPS | 119.8 | 115.0 | (4.8) |
OppP % | 40.3% | 38.5% | -1.7% |
HOpp2FG% | 50.11% | 47.47% | -2.64% |
HOpp3FG% | 35.93% | 32.70% | -3.23% |
AOpp2FG% | 53.59% | 50.62% | -2.97% |
AOpp3FG% | 30.01% | 27.95% | -2.06% |
OppFT Freq | 37.48% | 42.49% | 5.0% |
勝利傾向分析
勝利した試合においては、若干ディフェンス優位となっています。3ptA%や2ptA%はほぼ変化はないものの、3ポイント被決定率は下がっている。本数にして1本差といったところです。DRB%に変化はなく、セカンドチャンスをリーグ平均的に11点程度に抑えられたゲームに勝利している。
オフェンスに関しては、2ポイントを1本合計19本決められた試合に勝利している
敗戦傾向
オフェンス
オフェンス | 広島HEALTHY!平均 | 広島HEALTHY!敗戦平均 | |
3FGA | 30.5 | 31.8 | 1.3 |
3FG% | 36.79% | 34.30% | -2.49% |
HOME3FG% | 35.76% | 31.95% | -3.81% |
AWAy3FG% | 38.08% | 39.00% | 0.92% |
FT% | 78.12% | 76.58% | -1.53% |
HOMEFT% | 79.64% | 77.38% | -2.26% |
AWAYFT% | 76.2% | 75.0% | -1.2% |
2FG% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -5.1% |
HOME2FG% | 50.10% | 45.45% | -4.65% |
AWAy2FG% | 49.79% | 43.75% | -6.04% |
PfT% | 18.94% | 17.93% | -1.01% |
PitP% | 37.52% | 33.57% | -3.95% |
SCP% | 13.26% | 14.09% | 0.83% |
SCPRtg | 0.98 | 0.94 | -0.05 |
FBP% | 11.64% | 12.76% | 1.11% |
PfTRtg | 1.184 | 1.114 | -0.07 |
2ptA% | 48.47% | 47.06% | -1.41% |
3ptA% | 42.1% | 42.8% | 0.7% |
2pt割合 | 43.6% | 41.1% | -2.5% |
ペリメタ割合 | 6.1% | 7.6% | 1.5% |
3pt割合 | 41.54% | 41.93% | 0.39% |
FT割合 | 14.9% | 16.9% | 2.1% |
FT獲得率 | 24.00% | 25.89% | 1.89% |
FTD% | 9.44% | 10.10% | 0.67% |
eFG% | 52.68% | 47.78% | -4.89% |
TS% | 56.00% | 51.67% | -4.33% |
HOMEeFG% | 51.7% | 46.4% | -5.4% |
HOMETS% | 55.4% | 51.3% | -4.1% |
AWAYeFG | 53.9% | 50.7% | -3.2% |
AWAYTS% | 56.8% | 52.4% | -4.4% |
ORB% | 28.3% | 27.5% | -0.8% |
OR Chances | 37.67 | 41.50 | 3.83 |
OFFRtg | 110.9 | 103.9 | -7.00 |
NETRtg | 2.6 | -14.36 | -17.00 |
HOFFRtg | 110.5 | 102.6 | -7.91 |
AOFFRtg | 111.4 | 106.5 | -4.86 |
AST% | 51.0% | 52.6% | 1.6% |
ASTRtg | 24.8 | 24.1 | -0.77 |
TOV% | 16.52% | 16.74% | 0.22% |
LiveTOV% | 8.54% | 7.87% | -0.67% |
DeadTOV% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 0.9% |
pace | 72.0 | 72.2 | 0.2 |
POSSESSION | 73.0 | 73.7 | 0.8 |
Shot Chances | 84.5 | 86.6 | 2.13 |
攻撃成功回数 | 72.52 | 74.31 | 1.80 |
AST/TOV | 1.8 | 1.5 | -0.22 |
TOM | 1.62 | 1.90 | 0.28 |
VPS | 119.1 | 113.7 | -5.44 |
P % | 39.60% | 35.91% | -3.69% |
FT Freq | 36.4% | 39.2% | 2.8% |
ディフェンス
ディフェンス | 広島HEALTHY!平均 | 広島HEALTHY!敗戦平均 | 差分 |
Opp2FG% | 51.66% | 56.88% | 5.23% |
Opp3FG% | 33.30% | 39.25% | 5.95% |
OppPfT% | 18.20% | 17.45% | -0.75% |
OppPitP% | 45.31% | 42.32% | -3.00% |
OppSCP% | 15.4% | 15.2% | -0.3% |
OppSCPRtg | 0.95 | 1.17 | 0.22 |
OppFBP% | 12.85% | 14.03% | 1.17% |
OppPfTRtg | 1.2 | 1.2 | (0.0) |
Opp2ptA% | 50.27% | 49.09% | -1.17% |
Opp3ptA% | 40.03% | 39.76% | -0.27% |
Opp2pt割合 | 49.17% | 47.13% | -2.04% |
Oppペリメタ割合 | 3.85% | 4.81% | 0.96% |
Opp3pt割合 | 37.59% | 39.70% | 2.11% |
OppFT割合 | 13.24% | 13.17% | -0.07% |
OppFT獲得率 | 24.86% | 29.08% | 4.22% |
OppFTD% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 1.4% |
OppeFG% | 51.11% | 57.98% | 6.88% |
OppTS% | 53.07% | 59.27% | 6.20% |
HOppeFG% | 51.95% | 57.43% | 5.48% |
HOppTS% | 53.19% | 59.15% | 5.96% |
AOppeFG% | 50.05% | 59.10% | 9.05% |
AOppTS% | 52.91% | 59.50% | 6.59% |
OppORB% | 32.9% | 31.8% | -1.1% |
DRB% | 67.1% | 68.2% | 1.1% |
OppDRB% | 71.7% | 72.5% | 0.8% |
DR Chances | 40.4 | 36.7 | (3.7) |
DFFRtg | 108.2 | 118.2 | 10.0 |
HDFFRtg | 108.1 | 117.2 | 9.1 |
ADFFRtg | 108.4 | 120.2 | 11.8 |
OppAST% | 52.1% | 48.0% | -4.1% |
OppASTRtg | 25.9 | 26.3 | 0.3 |
OppTOV% | 17.77% | 16.29% | -1.49% |
OppLiveTOV% | 8.7% | 7.6% | -1.1% |
OppDeadTOV% | 9.1% | 8.7% | -0.4% |
Opp Shot Chances | 87.5 | 85.5 | (1.9) |
Opp攻撃成功回数 | 74.5 | 73.5 | (1.0) |
OppAST/TOV | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
TDM | 1.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 |
OppVPS | 119.8 | 129.4 | 9.6 |
OppP % | 40.3% | 43.7% | 3.4% |
HOpp2FG% | 50.11% | 54.08% | 3.97% |
HOpp3FG% | 35.93% | 40.78% | 4.85% |
AOpp2FG% | 53.59% | 62.50% | 8.91% |
AOpp3FG% | 30.01% | 36.20% | 6.19% |
OppFT Freq | 37.48% | 42.49% | 5.0% |
敗戦傾向分析
若干ではありますがディフェンスの崩れが敗戦の引き金になっていると予想できます
打たせる3ポイントの本数自体は減っていないものの、決定率が増加。本数にして12本(平均10本)決められたゲームに敗戦しています。そのほか、速攻による失点割合が14%(約12点)と微増しておりリーグワースト8レベルとなっています
オフェンスについては、得意の3ポイントではなく2ポイント、特にペイントエリア内得点の減少が目立ちます。25得点に減少しペリメタの得点が2ポイント上昇していることを考えると、本来ペイントで打つべき3本がそのままペリメタにスライドして決定率を下げていることが考えられます。
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