【数字で見るBリーグ】B1チャンピオンシップQF徹底予想！'22| B.League Analytics

千葉ジェッツVS宇都宮ブレックス

千葉ジェッツVS宇都宮ブレックス

オフェンススタッツ比較

数字が高いものに☆マークをつけています

		千葉	宇都宮
3FG%	☆	36.75%	34.52%
FT%	☆	78.06%	72.68%
2FG%	☆	55.79%	52.67%
PitP%		41.01%	47.64%	☆
SCP%		15.00%	16.50%	☆
SCP Rtg	☆	1.13	1.09
FBP%	☆	14.06%	13.00%
2ptA%		51.98%	59.41%	☆
3ptA%	☆	35.95%	29.98%
2pt割合		48.58%	56.62%	☆
ペリメタ割合		7.57%	8.56%	☆
3pt割合	☆	33.25%	27.63%
FT割合	☆	18.18%	15.75%
FT獲得率	☆	31.75%	27.32%
eFG%	☆	55.36%	52.53%
ORB%		32.67%	34.24%	☆
OFFRtg	☆	122.25	118.76
TS%	☆	59.45%	55.70%
pace	☆	71.66	67.51
AST%	☆	56.49%	54.16%
HOMEeFG%	☆	56.48%	51.38%
HOMETS%	☆	60.29%	54.78%
AWAYeFG		53.69%	53.68%
AWAYTS%		58.20%	56.63%
TOV%		16.10%	16.15%	☆
POSSESSION	☆	72.10	67.29
Shot Chances	☆	85.85	82.57
攻撃成功回数	☆	74.25	71.71
AST/ TOV	☆	2.21	2.17
TOM	☆	2.232	1.792
VPS	☆	126.79	118.58
P %		43.30%	44.49%	☆
LiveTOV%	☆	9.69%	8.06%
DeadTOV%		6.40%	8.09%	☆
PfT%		17.71%	19.76%	☆
PfTRtg	☆	1.24	1.23
FTD%	☆	12.08%	10.60%
HOMEFT%	☆	77.46%	72.58%
AWAYFT%	☆	78.62%	71.54%


HOFFRtg	☆	125.13	116.8
HDFFRtg	☆	105.37	101.5
AOFFRtg		118.7	120.7	☆
ADFFRtg	☆	111.5	101.2
H2FG％	☆	57.22%	51.09%
H3FG%	☆	37.37%	34.53%
A2FG％	☆	54.32%	54.24%
A3FG%	☆	36.32%	34.23%

ディフェンススタッツ比較

数字が低いものに☆マークをつけています

		千葉	宇都宮
Opp2ptFG%		52.22%	45.62%	☆
Opp3ptFG%	☆	29.30%	34.96%
OppPitP%		44.14%	41.02%	☆
OppSCP%	☆	13.84%	14.34%
OPPSCP Rtg	☆	0.96	1.04
OppFBP%		15.51%	12.25%	☆
Opp2ptA%	☆	53.53%	57.55%
Opp3ptA%		34.50%	31.69%	☆
Opp2pt割合		52.77%	50.93%	☆
Oppペリメタ割合	☆	8.63%	9.01%
Opp3pt割合	☆	28.44%	31.79%
OppFT割合		18.79%	17.28%	☆
OppFT獲得率		31.37%	27.78%	☆
OppeFG%		49.02%	47.90%	☆
DRB%	☆	70.72%	72.97%
DFFRtg		107.84	101.34	☆
OppTS%		53.11%	51.67%	☆
OppAST%		52.68%	51.55%	☆
HOppeFG%%		48.06%	47.34%	☆
HOppTS%		52.43%	51.21%	☆
AOppeFG%		50.46%	48.46%	☆
AOppTS%		54.13%	52.12%	☆
OppTOV%	☆	17.59%	19.18%
OppAST/ TOV		1.71	1.45	☆
TDM		1.79	1.75	☆
OppPfT%	☆	16.94%	16.95%
OppFTD%		11.97%	10.80%	☆
OppLiveTOV%	☆	9.10%	10.06%
OppDeadTOV%	☆	8.49%	9.11%
HOpp2FG％		51.85%	45.69%	☆
HOpp3FG%	☆	27.70%	34.04%
AOpp2FG％		52.77%	42.50%	☆
AOpp3FG%	☆	31.71%	33.49%

千葉敗戦傾向

シーズン平均と、敗戦平均の特に目立ったものを抜粋して記載しています

	シーズン平均	敗戦平均	平均との差分


PTS	88.1	78.5	-9.59
3FG%	36.75%	31.48%	-5.27%
2FG%	55.79%	51.56%	-4.23%
Opp2ptFG%	52.22%	52.47%	0.25%
Opp3ptFG%	29.30%	35.49%	6.19%
OppSCP%	13.84%	17.42%	3.58%
OppFBP%	15.51%	11.94%	-3.57%
Opp2pt割合	52.77%	49.17%	-3.60%
OppFT獲得率	31.37%	35.39%	4.02%
eFG%	55.36%	49.26%	-6.10%
Opppts	76.76	86.40	9.64
ORB%	32.67%	27.97%	-4.70%
DRB%	70.72%	64.76%	-5.97%
OFFRtg	122.25	109.93	-12.31
DFFRtg	107.84	121.00	13.17
NetRtg	14.41	-11.07	-25.48
AST%	56.49%	53.29%	-3.20%
HOMEeFG%	56.48%	47.53%	-8.95%
HOMETS%	60.29%	50.59%	-9.70%
AWAYeFG	53.69%	49.69%	-4.00%
AWAYTS%	58.20%	54.60%	-3.60%
OppTOV%	17.6%	14.4%	-3.20%
Opp攻撃成功回数	72.27	76.55	4.28
HOMEFT%	77.46%	64.30%	-13.16%
HOFFRtg	125.13	100.17	(24.95)
HDFFRtg	105.37	109.15	3.78
AOFFRtg	118.72	112.37	(6.35)
ADFFRtg	111.54	123.97	12.43
H2FG％	57.22%	49.54%	-7.68%
H3FG%	37.37%	29.75%	-7.62%
A3FG%	36.32%	31.91%	-4.41%

宇都宮敗戦傾向

シーズン平均と、敗戦平均の特に目立ったものを抜粋して記載しています

	シーズン平均	敗戦平均	平均との差分
対戦相手
H/A
Min	200.8	203.1	2.29
PTS	79.8	68.6	-11.18
3FG%	34.52%	25.36%	-9.16%
FT%	72.68%	70.59%	-2.09%
AS	20.4	16.8	-3.61
2FG%	52.67%	48.17%	-4.49%
Opp2ptFG%	44.12%	48.87%	4.76%
PitP%	47.64%	51.12%	3.48%
OppSCP%	14.34%	17.12%	2.78%
2pt割合	56.62%	60.48%	3.85%
Opp2pt割合	48.91%	50.91%	2.00%
3pt割合	27.63%	24.21%	-3.42%
FT獲得率	27.32%	22.83%	-4.49%
OppFT獲得率	27.78%	31.03%	3.25%
eFG%	52.53%	45.14%	-7.39%
OppeFG%	46.92%	51.40%	4.48%
Opppts	69.14	77.31	8.17
ORB%	34.24%	30.71%	-3.53%
DRB%	72.97%	68.42%	-4.55%
OFFRtg	118.76	101.25	-17.50
DFFRtg	101.34	112.49	11.15
NetRtg	17.42	-11.24	-28.66
OppAST%	51.55%	46.44%	-5.11%
HOMEeFG%	51.38%	46.22%	-5.15%
HOMETS%	54.78%	49.73%	-5.05%
AWAYeFG	53.68%	43.75%	-9.93%
AWAYTS%	56.63%	46.77%	-9.86%
AOppeFG%	48.46%	52.15%	3.69%
AOppTS%	52.12%	55.75%	3.63%
TOV%	16.15%	18.07%	1.92%
OppTOV%	19.2%	17.4%	-1.81%
Opp攻撃成功回数	66.99	69.63	2.64
AWAYFT%	71.54%	64.46%	-7.08%
HOFFRtg	116.80	104.07	(12.73)
HDFFRtg	101.46	113.39	11.92
AOFFRtg	120.71	97.63	(23.09)
ADFFRtg	101.21	111.33	10.13
A2FG％	54.24%	48.85%	-5.39%
A3FG%	34.23%	20.16%	-14.08%

対戦結果　（千葉視点）

勝敗	L	W	W	L	W平均ーL 平均
対戦相手	宇都宮	宇都宮	宇都宮	宇都宮
H/A	a	h	a	a
Min	200	200	200	200	0
PTS	75	93	74	69	11.5
FGM	28	34	23	23	3
FGA	61	63	60	58	2
FG%	45.90%	54.00%	38.30%	39.70%	3.35%
3FGM	6	7	7	9	-1
3FGA	20	24	21	30	-2.5
3FG%	30.00%	29.20%	33.30%	30.00%	1.25%
FTM	13	18	21	14	6
FTA	14	21	27	18	8
FT%	92.90%	85.70%	77.80%	77.80%	-3.60%
OR	10	14	12	9	4
DR	16	23	25	34	-1
TR	26	37	37	43	2.5
AS	21	23	16	12	3
TO	16	9	15	17	-4.5
ST	4	7	7	3	3.5
BS	1	1	2	3	-0.5
BSR	2	2	4	3	0.5
F	24	19	17	24	-6
FO	18	19	25	20	3
2FGM	22	27	16	14	3.5
2FGA	41	39	39	28	4.5
2FG%	53.66%	69.23%	41.03%	50.00%	3.30%
Opp2ptFG%	62.22%	46.51%	59.38%	46.15%	-1.24%
Opp3ptFG%	40.00%	20.00%	25.00%	24.00%	-9.50%
PitP	38	52	30	24	10
SCP	11	25	13	12	7.5
FBP	8	4	14	7	1.5
PitP%	50.67%	55.91%	40.54%	34.78%	5.50%
OppPitP%	56.00%	54.55%	47.89%	44.44%	0.99%
SCP%	14.67%	26.88%	17.57%	17.39%	6.20%
OppSCP%	19.00%	36.36%	2.82%	27.78%	-3.80%
SCP Rtg	1.10	1.79	1.08	1.33	0.22
OPPSCP Rtg	1.46	1.26	0.29	1.82	-0.87
FBP%	10.67%	4.30%	18.92%	10.14%	1.20%
OppFBP%	13.00%	12.12%	22.54%	8.33%	6.66%
2ptA%	61.05%	53.99%	54.26%	42.48%	2.36%
Opp2ptA%	59.56%	60.26%	48.37%	51.70%	-1.31%
3ptA%	29.78%	33.22%	29.22%	45.51%	-6.43%
Opp3ptA%	26.47%	28.03%	42.32%	33.14%	5.37%
2pt割合	58.67%	58.06%	43.24%	40.58%	1.03%
Opp2pt割合	56.00%	60.61%	53.52%	50.00%	4.06%
ペリメタ割合	8.00%	2.15%	2.70%	5.80%	-4.47%
Oppペリメタ割合	0.00%	6.06%	5.63%	5.56%	3.07%
3pt割合	24.00%	22.58%	28.38%	39.13%	-6.09%
Opp3pt割合	24.00%	18.18%	29.58%	25.00%	-0.62%
FT割合	17.33%	19.35%	28.38%	20.29%	5.06%
OppFT割合	20.00%	21.21%	16.90%	25.00%	-3.44%
FT獲得率	22.95%	33.33%	45.00%	31.03%	12.17%
OppFT獲得率	36.92%	30.16%	23.33%	40.63%	-12.03%
eFG%	50.82%	59.52%	44.17%	47.41%	2.73%
OppeFG%	61.54%	41.27%	49.17%	42.19%	-6.64%
Opppts	100	66	71	72	-17.5
ORB%	33.33%	48.28%	32.43%	25.00%	11.19%
DRB%	55.17%	54.76%	78.13%	75.56%	1.08%
OFFRtg	107.51	141.83	104.96	103.47	17.91
DFFRtg	143.35	107.54	104.56	105.44	-18.34
NetRtg	-35.84	34.29	0.40	-1.97	36.25
TORtg	22.94	13.73	21.28	25.49	-6.71
TS%	55.84%	64.37%	51.47%	52.34%	3.84%
OppTS%	66.17%	46.24%	53.66%	47.72%	-7.00%
pace	69.76	63.47	69.20	67.49	-2.29
AST%	61.48%	53.19%	45.87%	38.81%	-0.61%
OppAST%	45.10%	46.35%	62.19%	42.33%	10.56%
TOV%	22.94%	13.73%	21.28%	25.49%	-6.71%
OppTOV%	11.47%	22.81%	23.56%	10.25%	12.33%
POSSESSION	69.76	65.57	70.50	66.69	-0.19
OppPOSSESSION	69.76	61.37	67.90	68.29	-4.39
Shot Chances	83.16	81.24	86.88	82.92	1.02
Opp Shot Chances	83.56	85.36	82.16	82.44	0.76
攻撃成功回数	67.16	72.24	71.88	65.92	5.52
Opp攻撃成功回数	75.56	71.36	66.16	75.44	-6.74
AST/ TOV	1.31	2.56	1.07	0.71	0.80
OppAST/ TOV	2.63	1.07	1.25	2.14	-1.22
TOM	2.00	0.57	2.00	2.33	-0.88
TDM	1.63	2.67	2.00	0.60	1.22
VPS	101.35	130.53	111.35	112.23	14.15
OppVPS	133.54	100.27	103.42	110.39	-20.12
ASTRtg	30.10	35.08	22.69	17.99	4.84
OppASTRtg	30.10	24.44	29.45	21.97	0.91
P %	40.14%	51.85%	32.62%	34.49%	4.92%
OppP %	51.61%	39.11%	38.29%	35.15%	-4.68%
LiveTOV割合	50.00%	33.33%	53.33%	58.82%	-11.08%
DeadTOV割合	50.00%	66.67%	46.67%	41.18%	11.08%
LiveTOV%	11.47%	4.58%	11.35%	15.00%	-5.27%
DeadTOV%	11.47%	9.15%	9.93%	10.50%	-1.44%
FT Freq	34.22%	48.63%	47.52%	39.60%	11.16%
OR Chances	30	29	37	36	0
DR Chances	29	42	32	45	0
Diff R　Chances	1	-13	5	-9	0
PIE	32.76%	74.21%	50.70%	44.00%	24.08%
FGM +FTD	34.16	43.24	34.88	30.92	6.52
OppPTS	100	66	71	72	-17.5
OppFGM	36	24	26	24	-5
OppFGA	65	63	60	64	-3
OppFG%	0.554	0.381	0.433	0.375	-0.06
Opp3FGM	8	4	7	6	-1.5
Opp3FGA	20	20	28	25	1.5
Opp3FG%	0.4	0.2	0.25	0.24	-0.10
OppFTM	20	14	12	18	-6
OppFTA	24	19	14	26	-8.5
OppFT%	0.833	0.737	0.857	0.692	0.03
OppOR	13	19	7	11	1
OppDR	20	15	25	27	-3.5
OppTR	33	34	32	38	-2.5
OppAS	21	15	20	15	-0.5
OppTO	8	14	16	7	7.5
OppST	8	3	8	10	-3.5
OppBS	2	2	4	3	0.5
OppBSR	1	1	2	3	-0.5
OppF	18	19	25	20	3
OppFO	23	19	17	24	-5.5
PfT	8	15	23	2	14
PfT%	10.67%	16.13%	31.08%	2.90%	16.82%
OppPfT%	15.00%	21.21%	25.35%	19.44%	6.06%
PfTRtg	1.000	1.071	1.438	0.286	0.612
OppPfTRtg	0.93	1.56	1.2	0.82	0.50
FTD%	9.17%	12.79%	16.53%	12.01%	4.07%
OppFTD%	13.98%	11.72%	9.31%	15.16%	-4.06%
OppLiveTOV割合	50.00%	50.00%	43.75%	42.86%	0.45%
OppDeadTOV割合	50.00%	50.00%	56.25%	57.14%	-0.45%
OppLiveTOV%	5.73%	11.41%	10.31%	4.39%	5.79%
OppDeadTOV%	5.73%	11.41%	13.25%	5.86%	6.53%

予想

クオーターファイナルにおいて最も予想が難しい対戦カード。攻守の方針も、
3ptを打ちたい千葉に対し、３ptを守る宇都宮。
2ptを打ちたい宇都宮に対し, 2ptを守る千葉。
と噛み合っており、対戦成績も2勝２敗と完全に拮抗しています。
個人的に注目したのは2点で、
ホームゲームで攻撃力が爆発する（ORtg125）千葉に宇都宮が耐え切れるのか
そして、宇都宮の敗戦に密接に関係している３pt決定率です。
特に後者については、千葉の3pt被決定率にみられるように宇都宮が苦戦することが予想され、追い討ちをかけるように上記2点に多大な貢献をしている遠藤選手の欠場が予想されています。
これらのことから千葉勝利を予想します。
宇都宮勝利のシナリオとしては、（千葉に対しては難しいオーダーですが）ターンオーバーを全ポゼッションの22%（本数にして約15本）を目指します。
そして、千葉唯一の泣きどころフリースローを狙います。「全ショット＋フリースロー獲得ポゼッション」に対して14~15%（本数にして２２〜２4本）を達成できれば、勝利できるでしょう