スポンサーリンク

【数字で見るBリーグ】ファイナル’23!千葉ジェッツVS琉球ゴールデンキングス 徹底予想

スポンサーリンク
Bリーグ
スポンサーリンク
スポンサーリンク

スタッツ比較

オフェンススタッツ比較

オフェンス千葉琉球
3FG%34.99%33.84%
FT%73.46%73.61%
2FG%55.99%52.06%
PfT%18.48%18.37%
PitP%39.77%45.97%
SCP%16.9%19.4%
SCP Rtg1.21.1
FBP%14.25%10.87%
2ptA%47.02%53.76%
3ptA%42.18%35.37%
2pt割合45.88%50.92%
ペリメタ割合6.12%4.96%
3pt割合38.43%32.47%
FT割合15.68%16.60%
FT獲得率27.94%28.21%
eFG%54.55%51.55%
ORB%33.9%37.5%
OFFRtg121.6113.9
NetRtg18.1210.77
TS%57.70%55.07%
pace72.0571.04
AST%51.63%55.61%
HOMEeFG%56.00%52.97%
HOMETS%58.64%56.58%
AWAYeFG53.11%50.04%
AWAYTS%56.8%53.5%
TOV%14.0%17.8%
POSSESSION72.3471.34
Shot Chances86.5286.66
攻撃成功回数76.3473.96
AST/ TOV2.231.77
TOM2.21.7
LiveTOV%7.96%9.35%
DeadTOV%6.08%8.42%
FT Freq68.18%41.28%
PfTRtg1.231.27
FTD%10.80%10.87%
HOMEFT%69.73%79.67%
AWAYFT%76.57%70.02%
HOFFRtg120.99117.40
AOFFRtg122.3110.2
HOME2FG%56.20%54.20%
HOME3FG%36.65%34.12%
AWAY2FG%55.78%49.77%
AWAY3FG%33.42%33.33%

どちらも3ポイントを主体に打っていくチームではあるものの、千葉の3ptA%が圧倒的に高く本数でいうと約5本の差があります。
オフェンス面ではオフェンスリバウンドに付随したSCP%、PitP%、FTD%、そして千葉が少ないアシスト以外はほぼすべて千葉が上回っています。試合のペースにもよりますが15点近くを奪ってくる千葉の速攻にも注意が必要です。特にアウェイでのORtgを見てみると12ptsの差が出ています。

ディフェンススタッツ比較

数値が低い方が高評価になります

ディフェンス千葉琉球
Opp2ptFG%49.71%50.12%
Opp3ptFG%32.96%33.03%
OppPfT%15.54%18.80%
OppPitP%16.92%19.39%
OppSCP%15.2%12.3%
OPPSCP Rtg0.991.01
OppFBP%14.57%15.89%
Opp2ptA%53.75%54.98%
Opp3ptA%36.59%35.63%
Opp2pt割合51.00%51.96%
Oppペリメタ割合7.40%8.17%
Opp3pt割合34.30%32.70%
OppFT割合14.70%15.34%
OppFT獲得率24.79%23.81%
DRB%69.70%76.35%
DFFRtg103.50103.14
OppTS%52.44%53.30%
OppAST%56.87%54.79%
HOppeFG%49.80%48.61%
HOppTS%52.56%52.51%
AOppeFG%49.20%51.16%
AOppTS%52.31%54.16%
Opp攻撃成功回数71.4369.05
OppAST/ TOV1.571.69
OppPfTRtg1.11.1
OppFTD%9.67%9.38%
OppLiveTOV%9.01%8.53%
OppDeadTOV%9.60%8.41%
HDFFRtg104.5101.4
ADFFRtg102.5105.0
HOppFT%69.17%78.25%
AOppFT%72.85%73.17%
HOpp2FG%49.1%49.4%
HOpp3FG%34.1%32.1%
AOpp2FG%50.3%50.9%
AOpp3FG%31.9%34.0%
OppeFG%49.50%49.84%
OppTOV%18.62%16.94%

アウェイゲームにおける被決定率では、千葉に軍配。互いにFTDは少ないため守備効率は高いです。琉球は、千葉のDR%69%に活路を見出す必要がありそうです

敗戦傾向

勝利平均と敗戦してしまった試合の平均の差分をとり、大きく差分があった値についてピックアップし分析したいと思います

千葉ジェッツ

シーズン平均敗戦平均 平均との差分
PTS87.8077.43-10.37
3FGM11.2510.29-0.96
3FGA32.1531.71-0.44
3FG%34.99%32.46%-2.54%
FTM13.7512.86-0.89
FTA18.7218.43-0.29
FT%73.46%72.07%-1.39%
OR13.0714.291.22
DR26.8720.86-6.01
AS20.4017.71-2.69
TO10.1810.570.39
2FGM20.1516.86-3.29
2FGA35.9535.57-0.38
2FG%55.99%47.21%-8.78%
Opp2ptFG%49.71%56.38%6.67%
Opp3ptFG%32.96%39.86%6.89%
PfT16.4415.57-0.87
PitP34.9028.29-6.61
SCP14.8215.000.18
FBP12.4011.86-0.54
PfT%18.48%20.09%1.61%
OppPfT%15.54%16.51%0.97%
PitP%39.77%36.26%-3.51%
OppPitP%43.60%40.04%-3.56%
SCP%16.92%19.08%2.16%
OppSCP%0.150.160.01
SCP Rtg1.151.05-0.11
OPPSCP Rtg0.991.100.10
FBP%14.25%15.43%1.17%
OppFBP%14.57%11.11%-3.46%
2ptA%47.02%47.13%0.12%
Opp2ptA%53.75%55.03%1.29%
3ptA%42.18%42.25%0.07%
Opp3ptA%36.59%34.89%-1.70%
2pt割合45.88%43.21%-2.67%
Opp2pt割合51.00%51.36%0.36%
ペリメタ割合6.12%6.95%0.84%
Oppペリメタ割合7.40%11.32%3.92%
3pt割合38.43%40.04%1.60%
Opp3pt割合34.30%34.36%0.06%
FT割合15.68%16.75%1.07%
OppFT割合14.70%14.28%-0.41%
FT獲得率27.94%27.77%-0.17%
OppFT獲得率24.79%25.69%0.90%
eFG%54.55%47.96%-6.59%
OppeFG%49.50%57.69%8.19%
ORB%33.93%34.18%0.25%
OppORB%30.30%35.54%5.23%
DRB%69.70%64.46%-5.23%
OppDRB%66.07%65.82%-0.25%
OFFRtg121.62109.82-11.80
DFFRtg103.50119.1615.66
NetRtg18.12-9.34-27.46
TORtg14.0414.980.94
TS%57.70%51.48%-6.22%
OppTS%52.44%60.47%8.04%
pace72.0570.63-1.42
AST%51.63%50.34%-1.28%
OppAST%56.87%54.72%-2.15%
HOMEeFG%56.00%48.03%-7.97%
HOMETS%58.64%52.05%-6.59%
AWAYeFG53.11%47.87%-5.24%
AWAYTS%56.75%50.71%-6.05%
HOppeFG%49.80%61.03%11.23%
HOppTS%52.56%62.15%9.59%
AOppeFG%49.20%53.24%4.04%
AOppTS%52.31%58.24%5.92%
TOV%14.04%14.98%0.94%
OppTOV%18.6%19.3%0.7%
POSSESSION72.3470.63-1.70
OppPOSSESSION72.3470.63-1.70
Shot Chances86.5285.97-0.55
Opp Shot Chances84.9283.53-1.39
攻撃成功回数76.3475.39-0.94
Opp攻撃成功回数71.4369.82-1.62
AST/ TOV2.231.84-0.39
OppAST/ TOV1.571.600.03
TOM2.171.55-0.62
TDM2.201.70-0.49
VPS128.19112.95-15.23
OppVPS112.17124.3112.14
ASTRtg28.2325.10-3.13
OppASTRtg26.8829.672.79
LiveTOV%7.96%8.52%0.56%
DeadTOV%6.08%6.46%0.38%
FT Freq0.681.510.83
OR Chances38.3342.003.67
DR Chances38.6032.86-5.74
Opp3FGM8.559.711.16
Opp3FGA26.0824.29-1.80
OppFTM11.1011.860.76
OppFTA15.6816.140.46
OppFT%71.01%74.60%3.59%
OppOR11.7312.000.27
OppDR25.2727.712.45
OppAS19.4521.001.55
OppTO13.4813.710.23
PfTRtg1.231.13-0.10
OppPfTRtg1.141.290.16
FTD%10.80%10.61%-0.19%
OppFTD%9.67%10.08%0.41%
HOMEFT%69.73%68.98%-0.76%
AWAYFT%76.57%76.20%-0.37%
OppLiveTOV割合48.59%52.65%4.07%
OppDeadTOV割合51.41%47.35%-4.07%
OppLiveTOV%9.01%10.22%1.21%
OppDeadTOV%9.60%9.10%-0.50%
HOFFRtg120.99110.42-10.57
HDFFRtg104.48120.8416.36
AOFFRtg122.25109.03-13.22
ADFFRtg102.52116.9314.41
HOME2FG%56.20%50.82%-5.38%
HOME3FG%36.65%29.83%-6.83%
AWAY2FG%55.78%42.40%-13.38%
AWAY3FG%33.42%35.97%2.54%
HOppFT%69.17%64.80%-4.37%
AOppFT%72.85%87.67%14.82%
HOpp2FG%49.12%59.36%10.24%
HOpp3FG%34.06%43.58%9.51%
AOpp2FG%50.30%52.40%2.10%
AOpp3FG%31.86%34.90%3.04%
OppPfT12142.26
OppPitP32341.31
OppSCP11131.969047619
OppFBP119(1.52)
OppPTS75849.36

8回しか負けていませんが何方かと言えば、ディフェンスが勝敗の鍵になっています。
DFFRtg を比較するとなんと-17Ptsのとなっており、
特にホームでの HOpp3FG% と HOpp2FG% が+10%と大変ことになっています。アウェイでは+2%、+5%と大崩れはしていないが、アウェイゲームにおいてDR%が58%まで下がっており琉球にとっては追い風でしょう
打たせるショットの割合や失点の割合はほぼ変わらないものの、相手の2ポイントが若干増えており(特にペリメタ)被決定率が高くなっているところはジレンマを感じます。

琉球ゴールデンキングス

シーズン平均敗戦平均 平均との差分
PTS81.1773.00-8.17
3FGM8.837.75-1.08
3FGA26.1024.83-1.27
3FG%33.84%30.69%-3.15%
FTM13.4310.75-2.68
FTA18.2515.50-2.75
FT%73.61%70.88%-2.72%
OR14.3314.08-0.25
DR27.6024.42-3.18
AS20.8019.67-1.13
TO12.7014.421.72
2FGM20.6219.50-1.12
2FGA39.8339.50-0.33
2FG%52.06%49.67%-2.39%
Opp2ptFG%50.12%52.04%1.93%
Opp3ptFG%33.03%41.69%8.66%
PfT14.8712.58-2.28
PitP37.1334.50-2.63
SCP15.7712.50-3.27
FBP8.788.17-0.62
PfT%18.37%17.28%-1.10%
OppPfT%18.80%20.27%1.46%
PitP%45.97%48.13%2.17%
OppPitP%43.79%43.90%0.11%
SCP%19.39%17.36%-2.03%
OppSCP%0.120.10-0.02
SCP Rtg1.120.91-0.21
OPPSCP Rtg1.010.93-0.08
FBP%10.87%11.37%0.50%
OppFBP%15.89%19.05%3.17%
2ptA%53.76%55.51%1.75%
Opp2ptA%54.98%57.13%2.15%
3ptA%35.37%34.87%-0.50%
Opp3ptA%35.63%34.93%-0.70%
2pt割合50.92%53.84%2.92%
Opp2pt割合51.96%50.49%-1.47%
ペリメタ割合4.96%5.71%0.75%
Oppペリメタ割合8.17%6.58%-1.58%
3pt割合32.47%31.13%-1.34%
Opp3pt割合32.70%36.82%4.11%
FT割合16.60%15.03%-1.58%
OppFT割合15.34%12.70%-2.64%
FT獲得率28.21%24.51%-3.70%
OppFT獲得率23.81%19.83%-3.99%
eFG%51.55%48.36%-3.19%
OppeFG%49.84%56.17%6.33%
ORB%37.45%35.68%-1.77%
OppORB%23.65%26.71%3.07%
DRB%76.35%73.29%-3.07%
OppDRB%62.55%64.32%1.77%
OFFRtg113.91103.76-10.15
DFFRtg103.14116.6913.55
NetRtg10.77-12.93-23.70
TORtg17.7720.432.66
TS%55.07%51.36%-3.71%
OppTS%53.30%59.19%5.89%
pace71.0470.50-0.55
AST%55.61%57.75%2.14%
OppAST%54.79%56.86%2.07%
HOMEeFG%52.97%50.15%-2.82%
HOMETS%56.58%53.99%-2.59%
AWAYeFG50.04%47.08%-2.96%
AWAYTS%53.46%49.48%-3.98%
HOppeFG%48.61%52.83%4.22%
HOppTS%52.51%56.67%4.16%
AOppeFG%51.16%58.55%7.40%
AOppTS%54.16%60.99%6.84%
TOV%17.77%20.43%2.66%
OppTOV%16.9%15.1%-1.8%
POSSESSION71.3470.50-0.84
OppPOSSESSION71.3470.50-0.84
Shot Chances86.6685.57-1.09
Opp Shot Chances81.2280.49-0.73
攻撃成功回数73.9671.15-2.81
Opp攻撃成功回数69.0569.820.77
AST/ TOV1.771.45-0.33
OppAST/ TOV1.692.070.38
TOM1.732.260.54
TDM1.842.190.35
VPS123.52111.88-11.64
OppVPS106.03117.0010.97
ASTRtg29.2227.98-1.23
OppASTRtg25.7429.303.56
LiveTOV%9.35%10.25%0.90%
DeadTOV%8.42%10.18%1.75%
FT Freq0.410.37-0.04
OR Chances37.8539.331.48
DR Chances36.2533.50-2.75
Opp3FGM8.0810.082.00
Opp3FGA24.5824.50-0.08
OppFTM11.1710.42-0.75
OppFTA14.7012.67-2.03
OppFT%75.80%82.33%6.54%
OppOR8.659.080.43
OppDR23.5225.251.73
OppAS18.3020.672.37
OppTO12.1710.67-1.50
PfTRtg1.271.24-0.03
OppPfTRtg1.101.160.06
FTD%10.87%9.62%-1.25%
OppFTD%9.38%7.93%-1.45%
HOMEFT%79.67%81.74%2.07%
AWAYFT%70.02%63.13%-6.89%
OppLiveTOV割合50.73%47.08%-3.65%
OppDeadTOV割合49.27%52.92%3.65%
OppLiveTOV%8.53%7.33%-1.20%
OppDeadTOV%8.41%7.77%-0.64%
HOFFRtg117.40109.44-7.96
HDFFRtg101.39117.7216.32
AOFFRtg110.1999.71-10.48
ADFFRtg105.01115.9610.95
HOME2FG%54.20%55.31%1.10%
HOME3FG%34.12%28.82%-5.30%
AWAY2FG%49.77%45.64%-4.13%
AWAY3FG%33.33%32.03%-1.31%
HOppFT%78.25%80.48%2.23%
AOppFT%73.17%83.66%10.49%
HOpp2FG%49.39%47.93%-1.47%
HOpp3FG%32.09%39.66%7.57%
AOpp2FG%50.89%54.99%4.10%
AOpp3FG%34.03%43.14%9.11%
OppPfT14172.80
OppPitP32363.93
OppSCP98-0.6
OppFBP12153.75

12回しか負けていませんが何方かと言えば、ディフェンスが勝敗の鍵になっています。
相手のショット傾向や試合のペース、リバウンドは勝敗に大きく関係はありません。
最も関係が深いのは3ポイント。3ポイントの決定率がホームでも39%決められていますし、アウェイではなんと43%という高さ。具体的には11~2本決められるとかなり厳しい展開となります。次の決め手は相手の速攻です。
琉球は戦略上オフェンスリバウンドに前がかりになっている傾向があり相手の速い攻めが効いてきます。総失点の約2割15~6点を取られてしまうと厳しい傾向にあります。

オフェンス面では、もともと若干高いTOV%が2割まで行くとさすがに厳しく、ホームでの3ptマイナス5%が不穏です。

対戦分析

ディフェンススタッツはオフェンスの逆になるだけでため割愛させていただきます。
例)相手のOffRtg=自チームのDffRtg

天皇杯決勝

87-76 千葉Win

千葉A琉球A
3FG%37.50%26.50%
FT%100.00%88.20%
2FG%53.13%62.96%
PfT%25.29%14.47%
PitP%29.89%39.47%
SCP%9.2%18.4%
SCP Rtg0.71.3
FBP%9.20%5.26%
2ptA%42.37%39.43%
3ptA%52.97%49.65%
2pt割合39.08%44.74%
ペリメタ割合9.20%5.26%
3pt割合51.72%35.53%
FT割合9.20%19.74%
FT獲得率11.11%27.87%
eFG%54.86%50.00%
ORB%28.2%32.4%
OFFRtg122.7107.2
NetRtg15.51-15.51
TS%57.60%55.49%
pace70.9170.91
AST%59.12%50.78%
HOMEeFG%
HOMETS%
AWAYeFG54.86%50.00%
AWAYTS%57.6%55.5%
TOV%11.3%21.2%
POSSESSION70.9170.91
Shot Chances83.5283.48
攻撃成功回数75.5268.48
AST/ TOV2.631.13
TOM1.12.0
LiveTOV%2.82%9.87%
DeadTOV%8.46%11.28%
FT Freq14.08%34.00%
PfTRtg1.471.38
FTD%4.66%10.92%
HOMEFT%
AWAYFT%100.00%88.20%
HOFFRtg
AOFFRtg122.7107.2
HOME2FG%
HOME3FG%
AWAY2FG%53.13%62.96%
AWAY3FG%37.50%26.50%

琉球が3ポイントを極端に打った(打たされた)ゲームで、なおかつその決定率が低かった試合でした。SCP%は高かったものの獲得率自体は32%tと高く見えますが敗戦平均よりも低い結果となりました。さらにTOV%が2割を超えており、琉球は敗戦傾向をなぞった結果となった

4/1 28節GAME1

89-85 千葉Win

千葉H琉球
3FG%46.40%42.30%
FT%77.80%40.00%
2FG%58.06%56.76%
PfT%17.98%18.82%
PitP%33.71%35.29%
SCP%6.7%22.4%
SCP Rtg0.91.3
FBP%3.37%7.06%
2ptA%46.32%50.00%
3ptA%41.84%35.14%
2pt割合40.45%49.41%
ペリメタ割合6.74%14.12%
3pt割合43.82%38.82%
FT割合15.73%11.76%
FT獲得率30.51%39.68%
eFG%63.56%59.52%
ORB%21.9%36.6%
OFFRtg126.7121.0
NetRtg5.69-5.69
TS%66.50%57.43%
pace70.2670.26
AST%53.96%53.49%
HOMEeFG%63.56%
HOMETS%66.50%
AWAYeFG59.52%
AWAYTS%57.4%
TOV%12.8%15.7%
POSSESSION70.2670.26
Shot Chances75.9285.00
攻撃成功回数66.9274.00
AST/ TOV2.332.09
TOM0.63.0
LiveTOV%2.85%7.12%
DeadTOV%9.96%8.54%
FT Freq39.60%55.00%
PfTRtg1.451.78
FTD%11.84%14.86%
HOMEFT%77.80%
AWAYFT%40.00%
HOFFRtg126.68
AOFFRtg121.0
HOME2FG%58.06%
HOME3FG%46.40%
AWAY2FG%56.76%
AWAY3FG%42.30%

両チームとも戦略通りのバスケットを行っていました。琉球は決定率も高く、FBPも低く抑え、TOVも少なく理想的なゲーム展開であったものの千葉の3ポイントが炸裂し千葉が勝利しました。

4/2 28節GAME2

76-78 琉球Win

千葉H琉球
3FG%41.90%31.00%
FT%72.20%47.80%
2FG%38.71%54.05%
PfT%7.89%28.21%
PitP%18.42%46.15%
SCP%15.8%29.5%
SCP Rtg0.91.2
FBP%5.26%11.54%
2ptA%44.34%48.61%
3ptA%44.34%38.10%
2pt割合31.58%51.28%
ペリメタ割合13.16%5.13%
3pt割合51.32%34.62%
FT割合17.11%14.10%
FT獲得率29.03%34.85%
eFG%50.81%50.76%
ORB%34.2%43.2%
OFFRtg115.4118.4
NetRtg-3.043.04
TS%54.35%51.23%
pace65.8865.88
AST%51.64%46.01%
HOMEeFG%50.81%
HOMETS%54.35%
AWAYeFG50.76%
AWAYTS%51.2%
TOV%15.2%12.1%
POSSESSION65.8865.88
Shot Chances79.9284.12
攻撃成功回数69.9276.12
AST/ TOV1.702.25
TOM1.31.8
LiveTOV%7.59%4.55%
DeadTOV%7.59%7.59%
FT Freq792.00%42.17%
PfTRtg0.752.20
FTD%11.33%13.29%
HOMEFT%72.20%
AWAYFT%47.80%
HOFFRtg115.36
AOFFRtg118.4
HOME2FG%38.71%
HOME3FG%41.90%
AWAY2FG%54.05%
AWAY3FG%31.00%

互いにこれまでと同じく自分たちのバスケットを行っていましたが、琉球は3pt決定率こそ少ないもののOR43%獲得、1本あたり1.2点を取り、SCP29%、FTD15%、守ってはペリメタを多く打たせ打たせることに成功。非常にスローペースで速攻も許さず攻守理想的なゲームで勝利。
千葉は3ポイントが高確率で決まったものの、2ポイントが厳しい結果となりました。

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