スポンサーリンク

【数字で見るBリーグ】激突天皇杯’23!琉球ゴールデンキングスVS横浜ビーコルセアーズ 徹底予想

スポンサーリンク
Bリーグ
スポンサーリンク
スポンサーリンク

スタッツ比較

オフェンススタッツ比較

琉球横浜
3FG%33.85%32.38%
FT%75.48%59.56%
2FG%51.46%54.34%
PfT%19.49%18.81%
PitP%46.59%50.18%
SCP%18.8%15.2%
SCP Rtg1.11.0
FBP%10.62%17.61%
2ptA%54.82%55.96%
3ptA%34.05%33.96%
2pt割合51.49%56.74%
ペリメタ割合4.90%6.55%
3pt割合31.15%30.65%
FT割合17.36%12.61%
FT獲得率29.01%25.87%
eFG%51.29%52.17%
ORB%36.7%31.1%
OFFRtg112.1110.0
NetRtg10.616.57
TS%55.15%53.68%
pace71.1973.92
AST%57.31%57.54%
HOMEeFG%52.10%52.08%
HOMETS%55.74%53.56%
AWAYeFG50.13%52.33%
AWAYTS%54.3%53.9%
TOV%18.9%15.3%
POSSESSION71.7173.92
Shot Chances86.7787.12
攻撃成功回数73.2475.77
AST/ TOV1.662.15
TOM1.82.0
LiveTOV%9.66%7.79%
DeadTOV%9.23%7.49%
FT Freq40.30%44.13%
PfTRtg1.311.19
FTD%11.12%10.08%
HOMEFT%77.03%57.23%
AWAYFT%74.16%58.03%
HOFFRtg113.35109.12
AOFFRtg110.4111.7
H2FG%53.85%55.11%
H3FG%32.85%32.42%
A2FG%48.05%52.94%
A3FG%35.11%35.16%

比較的3ptが多い琉球と2ptが多い横浜、ホームでの攻撃効率が高い琉球とアウェイでの攻撃効率が高い横浜と、オフェンス面では互角と言えるでしょう。

ディフェンススタッツ比較

数値が低い方が高評価になります

琉球横浜
Opp2ptFG%48.81%47.75%
Opp3ptFG%33.50%33.85%
OppPfT%20.65%15.07%
OppPitP%18.84%15.16%
OppSCP%12.5%13.9%
OPPSCP Rtg0.990.99
OppFBP%17.58%15.99%
Opp2ptA%54.57%55.01%
Opp3ptA%36.29%33.92%
Opp2pt割合50.61%50.10%
Oppペリメタ割合8.19%7.92%
Opp3pt割合34.13%32.80%
OppFT割合16.77%20.19%
OppFT獲得率23.18%28.65%
DRB%76.65%72.30%
DFFRtg101.53103.46
OppTS%52.69%52.64%
OppAST%54.12%55.64%
HOppeFG%47.21%48.70%
HOppTS%51.01%52.41%
AOppeFG%51.91%49.73%
AOppTS%55.08%53.07%
Opp攻撃成功回数69.2372.69
OppAST/ TOV1.641.60
OppPfTRtg1.11.0
OppFTD%9.14%11.07%
OppLiveTOV%8.46%10.06%
OppDeadTOV%8.69%7.32%
HDFFRtg97.6102.2
ADFFRtg107.2105.9
HOppFT%75.04%71.43%
AOppFT%78.67%72.03%
HOpp2FG%47.9%47.7%
HOpp3FG%31.4%33.3%
AOpp2FG%50.1%47.9%
AOpp3FG%36.6%34.8%

ディフェンススタッツについてだけ見れば琉球が優勢。琉球ホームでの守備効率と横浜アウェイでの守備効率を比較すると琉球の守備力が目立ちます。さらには、3ptを打たせる琉球に対し2ptを打たせる横浜という構図で琉球が優位に立っています。

敗戦傾向

勝利平均と敗戦してしまった試合の平均の差分をとり、大きく差分があった値についてピックアップし分析したいと思います

琉球ゴールデンキングス

勝利平均敗戦平均 平均との差分
PTS84.0470.33-13.71
FGM30.2825.56-4.72
FGA65.8463-2.73
FG%46.29%40.57%-5.73%
3FGM8.847.22-1.62
3FGA25.0024.44-0.56
3FG%35.53%28.92%-6.61%
FTM14.6412-2.64
FTA19.3216.11-3.21
FT%76.23%74.79%-1.44%
OR13.7613.890.13
DR29.6424.56-5.08
TR43.4038.44-4.96
AS21.9219.22-2.70
TO12.8815.332.45
ST6.525-1.52
2FGM21.4418.33-3.11
2FGA40.8438.67-2.17
2FG%52.85%47.58%-5.27%
Opp2ptFG%48.09%50.80%2.71%
Opp3ptFG%30.92%40.68%9.76%
PfT16.8812.78-4.10
PitP38.2434.22-4.02
SCP16.0812.56-3.52
FBP8.249.110.87
PfT%19.98%18.16%-1.8%
OppPfT%20.66%20.63%0.0%
PitP%45.61%49.29%3.68%
OppPitP%41.57%44.76%3.20%
SCP%19.18%17.91%-1.27%
OppSCP%13.09%10.91%-2.18%
SCP Rtg1.190.93-0.26
OPPSCP Rtg1.000.94-0.064
FBP%9.79%12.91%3.12%
OppFBP%16.17%21.48%5.31%
2ptA%54.73%55.09%0.36%
Opp2ptA%53.28%58.14%4.85%
3ptA%33.79%34.80%1.01%
Opp3ptA%37.03%34.23%-2.80%
2pt割合51.08%52.62%1.53%
Opp2pt割合50.40%51.19%0.79%
ペリメタ割合5.47%3.32%-2.15%
Oppペリメタ割合8.83%6.42%-2.41%
3pt割合31.50%30.17%-1.33%
Opp3pt割合33.43%36.07%2.65%
FT割合17.41%17.21%-0.20%
OppFT割合16.18%12.74%-3.44%
FT獲得率30.18%25.75%-4.43%
OppFT獲得率24.67%19.04%-5.63%
eFG%53.09%46.29%-6.80%
OppeFG%47.12%54.75%7.63%
Opppts69.5281.6712.15
ORB%37.18%35.18%-2.00%
OppORB%21.60%28.19%6.59%
DRB%78.40%71.81%-6.59%
OppDRB%62.82%64.82%2.00%
OFFRtg116.5599.87-16.68
DFFRtg96.37115.8519.49
NetRtg20.18-15.99-36.17
TORtg17.8721.743.87
TS%56.92%50.24%-0.07
OppTS%50.80%57.92%0.07
pace71.4270.53-0.90
AST%56.80%58.70%1.89%
OppAST%53.09%57.00%3.91%
HOMEeFG%54.11%46.07%-8.03%
HOMETS%57.71%49.83%-7.88%
AWAYeFG51.56%46.56%-5.00%
AWAYTS%55.72%50.75%-4.97%
HOppeFG%%46.51%49.29%2.78%
HOppTS%50.44%52.71%2.27%
AOppeFG%48.04%61.58%13.54%
AOppTS%51.34%64.44%13.10%
TOV%17.87%21.74%3.87%
OppTOV%17.93%14.94%-2.99%
POSSESSION72.1370.53-1.61
OppPOSSESSION72.1370.53-1.61
Shot Chances87.2285.53-1.69
Opp Shot Chances81.6681.48-0.18
攻撃成功回数74.34170.2-4.14
Opp攻撃成功回数68.6270.922.30
AST/ TOV1.791.29-0.50
OppAST/ TOV1.482.110.64
TOM1.532.541.01
TDM1.933.021.09
VPS127.89109.15-18.75
OppVPS100.96117.2616.30
ASTRtg30.4727.35-3.12
OppASTRtg23.3029.286.0
P %42.02%36.25%-5.77%
OppP %35.01%43.59%8.59%
LiveTOV割合52.27%48.44%-3.83%
DeadTOV割合47.73%51.56%3.83%
LiveTOV%9.35%10.55%1.20%
DeadTOV%8.52%11.20%2.67%
FT Freq41.23%37.72%-3.5%
OR Chances36.3639.222.86
DR Chances38.1234.33-3.79
PIE63.08%40.56%-0.23
FGM +FTD38.7832.64-6.14
OppMin202.00200-2.00
OppPTS69.5281.6712.15
OppFGM25.2030.785.58
OppFGA62.0065.443.44
OppFG%0.410.470.07
Opp3FGM7.849.781.94
Opp3FGA25.3224.44-0.88
Opp3FG%0.310.410.10
OppFTM11.2810.33-0.95
OppFTA15.0412.44-2.60
OppFT%0.740.830.09
OppOR8.489.781.30
OppDR22.6025.332.73
OppTR31.0835.114.03
OppAS16.7220.673.95
OppTO13.0410.56-2.48
OppST6.767.440.68
PfTRtg1.3261.26-0.07
OppPfTRtg1.1381.09-0.04
FTD%11.48%10.12%-1.37%
OppFTD%9.68%7.63%-2.05%
HOMEFT%78%74%-4.60%
AWAYFT%73%76%3.00%
OppLiveTOV割合50.31%46.49%-3.82%
OppDeadTOV割合49.69%53.51%3.82%
OppLiveTOV%8.94%7.11%-1.84%
OppDeadTOV%8.99%7.84%-1.2%
HOFFRtg118.4997.94-20.55
HDFFRtg93.29110.4317.14
AOFFRtg113.63102.28-11.35
ADFFRtg100.98122.6421.65
H2FG%55.08%50.14%-4.94%
H3FG%34.94%26.56%-8.38%
A2FG%49.51%44.39%-5.13%
A3FG%36.41%31.88%-4.53%
HOppFT%75.53%73.56%-1.97%
AOppFT%72.14%95.00%22.86%
HOpp2FG%48.62%45.62%-3.00%
HOpp3FG%29.79%36.04%6.25%
AOpp2FG%47.28%57.27%9.99%
AOpp3FG%32.61%46.48%13.87%

何方かと言えば、ディフェンスが勝敗の鍵になっています。2ptを、具体的に4本以上多く打たれており、それが速攻による2ptが多い場合に敗戦してしまう傾向が見られます。それ以外にも、インサイドからいい形でキックアウト3を打たれてしまったゲームにおいても敗戦してしまう傾向にあります。
ペース自体はそこまで変わっていないため、トランジションゲームになったと言うよりも、自チームのバスケットは継続しつつ相手の速攻ポゼッションが多くなっていることがわかります

横浜ビー・コルセアーズ

勝利平均敗戦平均 平均との差分
PTS87.9070.31-17.60
FGM33.3827.77-5.61
FGA67.8168.620.81
FG%49.22%40.82%-8.40%
3FGM9.486.54-2.94
3FGA25.0027.082.08
3FG%38.80%24.65%-14.15%
FTM11.678.23-3.44
FTA18.7115.23-3.48
FT%60.61%52.51%-8.10%
OR12.8611.54-1.32
DR27.7128.230.52
TR40.5739.77-0.80
AS23.5720.38-3.19
TO10.6712.461.79
ST7.766.85-0.92
2FGM23.9021.23-2.67
2FGA42.841.5-1.27
2FG%55.99%51.69%-4.29%
Opp2ptFG%47.02%48.92%1.91%
Opp3ptFG%33.21%34.88%1.67%
PfT17.1012.46-4.63
PitP42.8636.62-6.24
SCP14.339.69-4.64
FBP14.4313.69-0.74
PfT%19.38%17.88%-1.5%
OppPfT%14.06%16.69%2.6%
PitP%48.79%52.44%3.65%
OppPitP%43.76%39.64%-4.12%
SCP%16.18%13.52%-2.66%
OppSCP%15.29%11.78%-3.51%
SCP Rtg1.090.86-0.23
OPPSCP Rtg0.961.030.07
FBP%16.63%19.18%2.55%
OppFBP%16.43%15.28%-1.15%
2ptA%56.37%55.29%-1.08%
Opp2ptA%55.53%54.17%-1.36%
3ptA%32.76%35.90%3.14%
Opp3ptA%33.53%34.56%1.03%
2pt割合54.40%60.52%6.13%
Opp2pt割合50.69%49.16%-1.53%
ペリメタ割合5.61%8.08%2.47%
Oppペリメタ割合6.93%9.52%2.59%
3pt割合32.37%27.87%-4.50%
Opp3pt割合32.20%33.78%1.58%
FT割合13.23%11.60%-1.63%
OppFT割合17.11%17.06%-0.05%
FT獲得率28.17%22.15%-6.02%
OppFT獲得率28.36%29.13%0.77%
FT獲得率差分-0.19%-6.98%-6.79%
eFG%56.24%45.59%-10.65%
OppeFG%47.96%50.84%2.88%
ORB%33.99%26.44%-7.55%
OppORB%28.83%25.88%-2.95%
DRB%71.17%74.12%2.95%
OppDRB%66.01%73.56%7.55%
OFFRtg120.2193.58-26.63
DFFRtg101.36106.865.50
NetRtg18.85-13.28-32.13
TORtg14.5116.522.01
TS%57.83%46.98%-0.11
OppTS%51.58%54.36%0.03
pace73.1075.262.16
AST%56.46%59.28%2.82%
OppAST%54.89%56.85%1.95%
HOMEeFG%55.18%47.60%-7.58%
HOMETS%56.70%49.03%-7.67%
AWAYeFG57.96%41.07%-16.89%
AWAYTS%59.67%42.37%-17.30%
HOppeFG%47.35%50.66%3.31%
HOppTS%50.88%54.63%3.76%
AOppeFG%48.97%51.26%2.29%
AOppTS%52.72%53.76%1.03%
TOV%14.51%16.52%2.01%
OppTOV%18.27%15.95%-2.32%
POSSESSION73.1075.262.16
OppPOSSESSION73.1075.262.16
Shot Chances86.7187.781.07
Opp Shot Chances85.2985.940.65
攻撃成功回数76.04475.317-0.73
Opp攻撃成功回数71.9173.942.03
AST/ TOV2.391.77-0.63
OppAST/ TOV1.491.780.29
TOM1.932.070.14
TDM2.592.37-0.22
VPS128.98110.46-18.52
OppVPS110.34122.2411.90
ASTRtg32.1327.14-4.99
OppASTRtg25.8628.292.4
P %45.61%37.04%-8.56%
OppP %36.46%38.42%1.96%
LiveTOV割合49.02%53.64%4.62%
DeadTOV割合50.98%46.36%-4.62%
LiveTOV%7.03%9.01%1.98%
DeadTOV%7.48%7.51%0.03%
FT Freq44.73%43.15%-1.6%
OR Chances37.343.25.85
DR Chances39.038-1.10
PIE60.18%40.77%-0.19
FGM +FTD41.6234.47-7.14
OppMin200.00200.000.00
OppPTS74.0580.316.26
OppFGM26.6728.852.18
OppFGA64.1065.621.52
OppFG%0.420.440.02
Opp3FGM8.059.000.95
Opp3FGA24.1425.381.24
Opp3FG%0.330.350.02
OppFTM12.6713.620.95
OppFTA17.7618.921.16
OppFT%0.720.710.00
OppOR11.389.77-1.61
OppDR24.5231.697.17
OppTR35.9041.465.56
OppAS18.9021.232.33
OppTO13.3812.00-1.38
OppST5.146.771.63
PfTRtg1.2811.045-0.24
OppPfTRtg0.9681.0460.08
FTD%10.87%8.81%-2.07%
OppFTD%10.94%11.27%0.33%
HOMEFT%59%54%-4.68%
AWAYFT%63%48%-15.03%
OppLiveTOV割合58.77%57.32%-1.46%
OppDeadTOV割合41.23%42.68%1.46%
OppLiveTOV%10.65%9.10%-1.56%
OppDeadTOV%7.61%6.85%-0.8%
HOFFRtg117.5296.99-20.53
HDFFRtg98.43107.549.11
AOFFRtg124.5885.92-38.66
ADFFRtg106.12105.33-0.78
H2FG%56.03%53.77%-2.26%
H3FG%36.27%26.86%-9.41%
A2FG%55.91%47.01%-8.90%
A3FG%42.90%19.68%-23.23%
HOppFT%69.34%74.46%5.12%
AOppFT%75.88%64.33%-11.55%
HOpp2FG%46.62%49.19%2.57%
HOpp3FG%32.52%34.46%1.94%
AOpp2FG%47.66%48.32%0.66%
AOpp3FG%34.34%35.83%1.49%

オフェンスの崩壊が敗戦を招いています。むしろディフェンスは勝敗で大きく変化はありません。
基本戦略と反して3ptを多く打たされたゲームで敗戦しています。全国民が気になっているフリースローですが、ポゼッションにして2~3回減少しており決定率も52%と苦しんでいます。
逆に言うと、フリースローが60%入れば勝利できるチームであるともいえこちらは吉報でしょう。
決定率の低下から分母が増えたためかオフェンスリバウンド獲得率も大幅に低下しています。
ペリメタも増え、TOVも2ポゼッションほど増加。そのほかに面白い傾向としては、ASTの割合が増えると敗戦するという傾向でしょうか。

対戦分析

ディフェンススタッツはオフェンスの逆になるだけでため割愛させていただきます。
例)相手のOffRtg=自チームのDffRtg

16節GAME1
2023/1/7
琉球Awey
Lose
横浜Home
Win
3FG%21.10%36.40%
FT%46.70%50.00%
2FG%39.02%45.24%
PfT%17.65%25.37%
PitP%62.75%56.72%
SCP%15.7%16.4%
SCP Rtg0.71.1
FBP%11.76%32.84%
2ptA%61.56%61.40%
3ptA%28.53%32.16%
2pt割合62.75%56.72%
ペリメタ割合0.00%0.00%
3pt割合23.53%35.82%
FT割合13.73%7.46%
FT獲得率25.00%15.63%
eFG%36.67%48.44%
ORB%27.9%25.6%
OFFRtg71.994.4
NetRtg-22.5522.55
TS%38.29%48.98%
pace70.9570.95
AST%56.39%63.69%
HOMEeFG%48.44%
HOMETS%48.98%
AWAYeFG36.67%
AWAYTS%38.3%
TOV%25.4%16.9%
POSSESSION70.9570.95
Shot Chances84.6080.40
攻撃成功回数66.6068.40
AST/ TOV0.831.67
TOM0.91.7
LiveTOV%18.32%9.87%
DeadTOV%7.05%7.05%
FT Freq41.25%27.50%
PfTRtg0.750.94
FTD%9.91%6.43%
HOMEFT%50.00%
AWAYFT%46.70%
HOFFRtg94.43
AOFFRtg71.9
H2FG%45.24%
H3FG%36.40%
A2FG%39.02%
A3FG%21.10%

ディフェンスチーム同士らしく強烈なロースコア展開。
琉球はTOVが多く、速攻による失点割合が高い点では敗戦傾向をなぞっています

16節GAME2
2023/1/8
オフェンス琉球Away
Win
横浜Home
Lose
3FG%38.50%26.10%
FT%66.70%36.40%
2FG%46.51%64.86%
PfT%7.89%17.14%
PitP%42.11%51.43%
SCP%13.2%8.6%
SCP Rtg0.61.0
FBP%5.26%12.86%
2ptA%58.94%57.06%
3ptA%35.64%35.47%
2pt割合52.63%68.57%
ペリメタ割合10.53%17.14%
3pt割合39.47%25.71%
FT割合7.89%5.71%
FT獲得率13.04%18.33%
eFG%50.72%55.00%
ORB%47.2%17.6%
OFFRtg119.1109.7
NetRtg9.40(9.40)
TS%52.08%53.98%
pace63.8163.81
AST%70.67%57.41%
HOMEeFG%55.00%
HOMETS%53.98%
AWAYeFG50.72%
AWAYTS%52.1%
TOV%15.7%9.4%
POSSESSION63.8163.81
Shot Chances82.9670.84
攻撃成功回数72.9664.84
AST/ TOV2.403.33
TOM1.31.8
LiveTOV%7.84%4.70%
DeadTOV%7.84%4.70%
FT Freq23.29%34.57%
PfTRtg1.001.20
FTD%5.43%7.46%
HOMEFT%36.40%
AWAYFT%66.70%
HOFFRtg109.69
AOFFRtg119.1
H2FG%64.86%
H3FG%26.10%
A2FG%46.51%
A3FG%38.50%

Game2は3ptを多く打たされてしまい、フリースローポゼッションを与えられなかった上に決定率50%。打てた2ptもペリメタが多いと琉球のディフェンス戦略にハマった横浜が敗戦。
琉球は得意の2ptの決定率が非常に低かったにもかかわらず、47%の割合でORを回収しリカバーしました。

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