スポンサーリンク

【数字で見るBリーグ】CSセミファイナル’23!千葉ジェッツVSアルバルク東京 徹底予想

スポンサーリンク
Bリーグ
スポンサーリンク
スポンサーリンク

スタッツ比較

オフェンススタッツ比較

千葉東京
3FG%34.99%32.38%
FT%73.46%75.47%
2FG%55.99%50.44%
PfT%18.48%16.70%
PitP%39.77%44.75%
SCP%16.9%18.4%
SCP Rtg1.21.1
FBP%14.25%9.20%
2ptA%47.02%59.28%
3ptA%42.18%29.35%
2pt割合45.88%55.48%
ペリメタ割合6.12%10.73%
3pt割合38.43%26.27%
FT割合15.68%18.25%
FT獲得率27.94%29.70%
eFG%54.55%49.77%
ORB%33.9%36.3%
OFFRtg121.6113.5
NetRtg18.129.02
TS%57.70%53.90%
pace72.0567.93
AST%51.63%52.42%
HOMEeFG%56.00%51.47%
HOMETS%58.64%55.24%
AWAYeFG53.11%48.06%
AWAYTS%56.8%52.6%
TOV%14.0%15.8%
POSSESSION72.3468.07
Shot Chances86.5282.63
攻撃成功回数76.3471.83
AST/ TOV2.232.00
TOM2.21.2
LiveTOV%7.96%8.39%
DeadTOV%6.08%7.45%
FT Freq68.18%55.96%
PfTRtg1.231.10
FTD%10.80%11.37%
HOMEFT%69.73%75.12%
AWAYFT%76.57%76.77%
HOFFRtg120.99118.64
AOFFRtg122.3108.4
HOME2FG%56.20%52.32%
HOME3FG%36.65%33.48%
AWAY2FG%55.78%48.56%
AWAY3FG%33.42%31.66%

オフェンス面ではオフェンスリバウンドに付随したSCP%、PitP%、FTD%以外はほぼすべて千葉が上回っています。オフェンシブレーティング1位の面目躍如です

ディフェンススタッツ比較

数値が低い方が高評価になります

ディフェンス千葉東京
Opp2ptFG%49.71%51.25%
Opp3ptFG%32.96%32.35%
OppPfT%15.54%16.13%
OppPitP%16.92%18.36%
OppSCP%15.2%13.8%
OPPSCP Rtg0.991.01
OppFBP%14.57%12.24%
Opp2ptA%53.75%58.53%
Opp3ptA%36.59%31.56%
Opp2pt割合51.00%56.56%
Oppペリメタ割合7.40%8.17%
Opp3pt割合34.30%28.56%
OppFT割合14.70%14.88%
OppFT獲得率24.79%25.52%
DRB%69.70%72.32%
DFFRtg103.50104.49
OppTS%52.44%53.32%
OppAST%56.87%49.83%
HOppeFG%49.80%50.48%
HOppTS%52.56%53.48%
AOppeFG%49.20%50.38%
AOppTS%52.31%53.15%
Opp攻撃成功回数71.4366.76
OppAST/ TOV1.571.54
OppPfTRtg1.11.1
OppFTD%9.67%9.91%
OppLiveTOV%9.01%9.29%
OppDeadTOV%9.60%8.10%
HDFFRtg104.5103.2
ADFFRtg102.5105.7
HOppFT%69.17%72.65%
AOppFT%72.85%70.94%
HOpp2FG%49.1%52.0%
HOpp3FG%34.1%31.1%
AOpp2FG%50.3%50.5%
AOpp3FG%31.9%33.6%
OppeFG%49.50%50.43%
OppTOV%18.62%17.40%

3ポイントを打たせる千葉と2点を打ちたい東京。3ポイントを打ちたい千葉と、2ポイントを打たせる東京とお互いを止めるがっぷり四つの戦略。シュートに対するディフェンスは総じて千葉の方が優勢。リバウンド、アシスト、速攻やSCPに関するディフェンスは東京が高い。
ということで千葉のHOMEDFFRtgと東京のAWAYDFFRtgを比較すると若干千葉が優勢です

敗戦傾向

勝利平均と敗戦してしまった試合の平均の差分をとり、大きく差分があった値についてピックアップし分析したいと思います

千葉ジェッツ

シーズン平均敗戦平均 平均との差分
PTS87.8079.75-8.05
3FGM11.2510.13-1.13
3FGA32.1531.00-1.15
3FG%34.99%32.73%-2.27%
FTM13.7513.880.13
FTA18.7219.380.66
FT%73.46%73.16%-0.30%
OR13.0713.500.43
DR26.8720.88-5.99
AS20.4018.63-1.78
TO10.1810.250.07
2FGM20.1517.75-2.40
2FGA35.9535.63-0.33
2FG%55.99%49.64%-6.35%
Opp2ptFG%49.71%57.66%7.96%
Opp3ptFG%32.96%39.20%6.24%
PfT16.4415.00-1.44
PitP34.9031.25-3.65
SCP14.8214.880.06
FBP12.4012.38-0.03
PfT%18.48%19.01%0.53%
OppPfT%15.54%16.66%1.12%
PitP%39.77%38.50%-1.27%
OppPitP%43.60%40.24%-3.36%
SCP%16.92%18.52%1.60%
OppSCP%0.150.150.00
SCP Rtg1.151.13-0.02
OPPSCP Rtg0.991.070.08
FBP%14.25%15.58%1.33%
OppFBP%14.57%11.81%-2.77%
2ptA%47.02%47.37%0.35%
Opp2ptA%53.75%54.28%0.53%
3ptA%42.18%41.40%-0.79%
Opp3ptA%36.59%34.95%-1.63%
2pt割合45.88%44.06%-1.82%
Opp2pt割合51.00%51.19%0.19%
ペリメタ割合6.12%5.56%-0.55%
Oppペリメタ割合7.40%10.95%3.55%
3pt割合38.43%38.55%0.11%
Opp3pt割合34.30%33.58%-0.72%
FT割合15.68%17.39%1.71%
OppFT割合14.70%15.23%0.54%
FT獲得率27.94%29.54%1.60%
OppFT獲得率24.79%27.72%2.93%
eFG%54.55%49.53%-5.03%
OppeFG%49.50%58.04%8.54%
ORB%33.93%33.36%-0.57%
OppORB%30.30%34.54%4.24%
DRB%69.70%65.46%-4.24%
OppDRB%66.07%66.64%0.57%
OFFRtg121.62112.80-8.82
DFFRtg103.50120.9717.47
NetRtg18.12-8.17-26.29
TORtg14.0414.500.46
TS%57.70%53.21%-4.49%
OppTS%52.44%61.08%8.65%
pace72.0570.79-1.26
AST%51.63%51.08%-0.54%
OppAST%56.87%54.91%-1.96%
HOMEeFG%56.00%48.03%-7.97%
HOMETS%58.64%52.05%-6.59%
AWAYeFG53.11%51.02%-2.08%
AWAYTS%56.75%54.37%-2.38%
HOppeFG%49.80%61.03%11.23%
HOppTS%52.56%62.15%9.59%
AOppeFG%49.20%55.05%5.85%
AOppTS%52.31%60.02%7.70%
TOV%14.04%14.50%0.46%
OppTOV%18.6%18.3%-0.3%
POSSESSION72.3470.79-1.55
OppPOSSESSION72.3470.79-1.55
Shot Chances86.5285.40-1.12
Opp Shot Chances84.9283.27-1.65
攻撃成功回数76.3475.15-1.19
Opp攻撃成功回数71.4370.27-1.16
AST/ TOV2.232.00-0.23
OppAST/ TOV1.571.790.22
TOM2.171.69-0.48
TDM2.201.82-0.37
VPS128.19114.52-13.66
OppVPS112.17124.4612.29
ASTRtg28.2326.31-1.92
OppASTRtg26.8830.313.43
LiveTOV%7.96%8.50%0.54%
DeadTOV%6.08%6.00%-0.08%
FT Freq0.681.380.70
OR Chances38.3340.382.04
DR Chances38.6032.38-6.23
Opp3FGM8.559.631.08
Opp3FGA26.0824.50-1.58
OppFTM11.1013.001.90
OppFTA15.6817.381.69
OppFT%71.01%75.38%4.37%
OppOR11.7311.50-0.23
OppDR25.2726.881.61
OppAS19.4521.502.05
OppTO13.4813.00-0.48
PfTRtg1.231.16-0.07
OppPfTRtg1.141.400.26
FTD%10.80%11.23%0.43%
OppFTD%9.67%10.77%1.10%
HOMEFT%69.73%68.98%-0.76%
AWAYFT%76.57%77.35%0.78%
OppLiveTOV割合48.59%55.45%6.86%
OppDeadTOV割合51.41%44.55%-6.86%
OppLiveTOV%9.01%9.99%0.97%
OppDeadTOV%9.60%8.31%-1.29%
HOFFRtg120.99110.42-10.57
HDFFRtg104.48120.8416.36
AOFFRtg122.25115.18-7.07
ADFFRtg102.52121.1018.59
HOME2FG%56.20%50.82%-5.38%
HOME3FG%36.65%29.83%-6.83%
AWAY2FG%55.78%48.47%-7.32%
AWAY3FG%33.42%35.63%2.20%
HOppFT%69.17%64.80%-4.37%
AOppFT%72.85%85.95%13.10%
HOpp2FG%49.12%59.36%10.24%
HOpp3FG%34.06%43.58%9.51%
AOpp2FG%50.30%55.97%5.67%
AOpp3FG%31.86%34.83%2.96%
OppPfT12142.65
OppPitP32352.10
OppSCP11131.183333333
OppFBP1110-0.7
OppPTS758610.84

8回しか負けていませんが何方かと言えば、ディフェンスが勝敗の鍵になっています。
DFFRtg を比較するとなんと-17Ptsのとなっており、
特にホームでの HOpp3FG% と HOpp2FG% が+10%と大変ことになっています。
打たせるショットの割合や失点の割合はほぼ変わらないものの、相手の2ポイントが若干増えており(特にペリメタ)被決定率が高くなっているところはジレンマを感じます。

アルバルク東京

シーズン平均敗戦平均 平均との差分
PTS77.2572.56-4.69
3FGM6.806.61-0.19
3FGA21.0021.780.78
3FG%32.38%30.68%-1.70%
FTM13.9513.72-0.23
FTA18.4819.000.52
FT%75.47%73.77%-1.71%
OR13.4211.33-2.08
DR25.0322.06-2.98
AS19.1017.17-1.93
TO10.8011.060.26
2FGM21.4519.50-1.95
2FGA42.7039.39-3.31
2FG%50.44%49.62%-0.83%
Opp2ptFG%51.25%56.93%5.68%
Opp3ptFG%32.35%38.97%6.62%
PfT12.9710.89-2.08
PitP34.6031.44-3.16
SCP14.0812.33-1.75
FBP7.185.94-1.24
PfT%16.70%14.97%-1.73%
OppPfT%16.13%16.78%0.66%
PitP%44.75%43.23%-1.52%
OppPitP%48.40%45.03%-3.36%
SCP%18.36%17.13%-1.22%
OppSCP%13.8%14.2%0.00
SCP Rtg1.081.100.02
OPPSCP Rtg1.011.120.11
FBP%9.20%8.02%-1.18%
OppFBP%12.24%11.12%-1.12%
2ptA%59.28%56.53%-2.74%
Opp2ptA%58.53%54.35%-4.18%
3ptA%29.35%31.42%2.06%
Opp3ptA%31.56%33.68%2.12%
2pt割合55.48%53.64%-1.83%
Opp2pt割合56.56%51.90%-4.66%
ペリメタ割合10.73%10.41%-0.32%
Oppペリメタ割合8.17%6.87%-1.30%
3pt割合26.27%27.19%0.92%
Opp3pt割合28.56%32.47%3.91%
FT割合18.25%19.17%0.92%
OppFT割合14.88%15.62%0.75%
FT獲得率29.70%31.96%2.26%
OppFT獲得率25.52%31.66%6.14%
eFG%49.77%47.95%-1.81%
OppeFG%50.43%57.18%6.75%
ORB%36.27%31.39%-4.88%
OppORB%27.68%30.69%3.01%
DRB%72.32%69.31%-3.01%
OppDRB%63.73%68.61%4.88%
OFFRtg113.51106.81-6.70
DFFRtg104.49119.3214.82
NetRtg9.02-12.51-21.52
TORtg15.8416.300.46
TS%53.90%52.16%-1.75%
OppTS%53.32%59.63%6.31%
pace67.9367.930.00
AST%52.42%49.87%-2.55%
OppAST%49.83%47.34%-2.49%
HOMEeFG%51.47%51.62%0.15%
HOMETS%55.24%55.29%0.05%
AWAYeFG48.06%46.12%-1.94%
AWAYTS%52.57%50.59%-1.97%
HOppeFG%50.48%57.50%7.02%
HOppTS%53.48%60.05%6.57%
AOppeFG%50.38%57.02%6.64%
AOppTS%53.15%59.42%6.26%
TOV%15.84%16.30%0.46%
OppTOV%17.4%15.5%-1.9%
POSSESSION68.0767.93-0.14
OppPOSSESSION68.0767.93-0.14
Shot Chances82.6380.58-2.05
Opp Shot Chances78.6178.51-0.10
攻撃成功回数71.8369.53-2.31
Opp攻撃成功回数66.7668.011.25
AST/ TOV2.001.70-0.30
OppAST/ TOV1.541.870.33
TOM1.241.08-0.16
TDM1.621.960.34
VPS116.13106.32-9.80
OppVPS104.29116.0111.73
ASTRtg28.0625.23-2.83
OppASTRtg24.3526.522.17
LiveTOV%8.39%7.92%-0.46%
DeadTOV%7.45%8.38%0.93%
FT Freq0.560.41-0.15
OR Chances36.7336.17-0.57
DR Chances34.6031.89-2.71
Opp3FGM6.878.831.97
Opp3FGA21.1823.001.82
OppFTM10.5712.441.88
OppFTA14.9518.333.38
OppFT%71.80%68.46%-3.33%
OppOR9.579.830.27
OppDR23.3224.831.52
OppAS16.5518.001.45
OppTO11.8510.50-1.35
PfTRtg1.101.05-0.06
OppPfTRtg1.061.230.17
FTD%11.37%12.05%0.68%
OppFTD%9.91%11.97%2.06%
HOMEFT%75.12%72.52%-2.61%
AWAYFT%76.77%74.39%-2.38%
OppLiveTOV割合54.19%56.90%2.71%
OppDeadTOV割合45.81%44.64%-1.17%
OppLiveTOV%9.29%8.47%-0.82%
OppDeadTOV%8.10%6.98%-1.12%
HOFFRtg118.64111.34-7.30
HDFFRtg103.23117.5614.33
AOFFRtg108.38104.54-3.83
ADFFRtg105.75120.1914.44
HOME2FG%52.32%51.71%-0.61%
HOME3FG%33.48%34.18%0.71%
AWAY2FG%48.56%48.57%0.00%
AWAY3FG%31.66%28.93%-2.73%
HOppFT%72.65%67.53%-5.12%
AOppFT%70.94%68.93%-2.02%
HOpp2FG%51.96%57.48%5.52%
HOpp3FG%31.06%38.47%7.41%
AOpp2FG%50.55%56.65%6.11%
AOpp3FG%33.64%39.23%5.59%
OppPfT11142.17
OppPitP34362.18
OppSCP10111.61
OppFBP990.43
OppPTS71819.91

ディフェンスチームらしく、ディフェンスが大変なことになっています。
DRtg差分-14.82ptsとなっており、被決定率も5~6%上昇となっています
特に止めている3ポイントを決められた試合が苦しいようですさらにフリースローポゼッションの増加も見られます

対戦分析

ディフェンススタッツはオフェンスの逆になるだけでため割愛させていただきます。
例)相手のOffRtg=自チームのDffRtg

2節GAME1

千葉(A)東京(H)Win
3FG%32.10%25.00%
FT%78.60%88.90%
2FG%37.84%54.35%
PfT%21.21%8.97%
PitP%36.36%41.03%
SCP%12.1%21.8%
SCP Rtg0.91.1
FBP%19.70%5.13%
2ptA%52.00%65.79%
3ptA%39.35%22.88%
2pt割合42.42%64.10%
ペリメタ割合6.06%23.08%
3pt割合40.91%15.38%
FT割合16.67%20.51%
FT獲得率21.54%29.03%
eFG%42.31%50.00%
ORB%20.9%44.1%
OFFRtg98.6116.6
NetRtg-17.9417.94
TS%46.37%55.78%
pace66.9166.91
AST%48.01%59.59%
HOMEeFG%50.00%
HOMETS%55.78%
AWAYeFG42.31%
AWAYTS%46.4%
TOV%9.0%19.4%
POSSESSION66.9166.91
Shot Chances77.1682.92
攻撃成功回数71.1669.92
AST/ TOV2.331.69
TOM1.61.0
LiveTOV%5.98%11.96%
DeadTOV%2.99%7.47%
FT Freq30.80%52.80%
PfTRtg1.081.17
FTD%8.66%11.33%
HOMEFT%88.90%
AWAYFT%78.60%
HOFFRtg116.58
AOFFRtg98.6
HOME2FG%54.35%
HOME3FG%25.00%
AWAY2FG%37.84%
AWAY3FG%32.10%

それぞれの決定率がそこまで高くはなく、TOVも多かったにも関わらず、OR44%から2ptA65%なんとペリメタから総得点の23%を生み出しての勝利となりました。2ポイントをしっかり落とさせ、OR回収も許しませんでした。

2節GAME2

千葉(A)Win東京(H)
3FG%33.30%22.70%
FT%70.60%66.70%
2FG%54.84%55.81%
PfT%12.20%9.09%
PitP%34.15%51.95%
SCP%20.7%13.0%
SCP Rtg1.51.3
FBP%15.85%5.19%
2ptA%41.62%57.92%
3ptA%48.34%29.63%
2pt割合41.46%62.34%
ペリメタ割合7.32%10.39%
3pt割合43.90%19.48%
FT割合14.63%18.18%
FT獲得率25.37%32.31%
eFG%52.24%48.46%
ORB%27.5%22.9%
OFFRtg113.7106.8
NetRtg6.93-6.93
TS%55.05%51.86%
pace72.1172.11
AST%43.86%47.07%
HOMEeFG%48.46%
HOMETS%51.86%
AWAYeFG52.24%
AWAYTS%55.0%
TOV%11.1%12.5%
POSSESSION72.1172.11
Shot Chances82.4883.24
攻撃成功回数74.4874.24
AST/ TOV2.002.00
TOM3.31.0
LiveTOV%5.55%5.55%
DeadTOV%5.55%6.93%
FT Freq37.40%44.00%
PfTRtg1.110.88
FTD%10.04%12.45%
HOMEFT%66.70%
AWAYFT%70.60%
HOFFRtg106.79
AOFFRtg113.7
HOME2FG%55.81%
HOME3FG%22.70%
AWAY2FG%54.84%
AWAY3FG%33.30%

Game2は互いに自分たちのバスケットを遂行し、TOVも、FTもほぼ同じゲームであったが、東京は落ちた3ポイントをオフェンスリバウンドで回収することができず攻撃効率が伸び悩み千葉の勝利となりました

35節GAME1

千葉東京
3FG%45.80%26.70%
FT%61.50%81.80%
2FG%63.16%54.00%
PfT%16.85%16.00%
PitP%42.70%69.33%
SCP%20.2%22.7%
SCP Rtg1.51.1
FBP%5.62%5.33%
2ptA%56.11%71.59%
3ptA%35.44%21.48%
2pt割合53.93%72.00%
ペリメタ割合11.24%2.67%
3pt割合37.08%16.00%
FT割合8.99%12.00%
FT獲得率20.97%16.92%
eFG%65.32%50.77%
ORB%41.4%48.5%
OFFRtg136.9115.4
NetRtg21.54-21.54
TS%65.71%53.69%
pace65.0065.00
AST%56.48%55.80%
HOMEeFG%65.32%
HOMETS%65.71%
AWAYeFG50.77%
AWAYTS%53.7%
TOV%15.4%20.0%
POSSESSION65.0065.00
Shot Chances77.7282.84
攻撃成功回数67.7269.84
AST/ TOV2.301.54
TOM1.30.8
LiveTOV%7.69%6.15%
DeadTOV%7.69%13.85%
FT Freq31.78%30.25%
PfTRtg1.151.20
FTD%8.45%6.93%
HOMEFT%61.50%
AWAYFT%81.80%
HOFFRtg136.92
AOFFRtg115.4
HOME2FG%63.16%
HOME3FG%45.80%
AWAY2FG%54.00%
AWAY3FG%26.70%

GAME2に関しても戦略的にはお互いに自分たちのバスケットをおこなっていたものの、決定率が高い千葉にもオフェンスリバウンドを41%も回収されてしまい東京は敗戦を喫してしまいました。(東京のORtgは平均以上に高い)

35節GAME2

千葉東京
3FG%43.80%33.30%
FT%66.70%56.50%
2FG%59.46%50.00%
PfT%20.21%4.55%
PitP%38.30%33.33%
SCP%9.6%28.8%
SCP Rtg0.91.7
FBP%15.96%6.06%
2ptA%49.81%41.19%
3ptA%43.08%42.78%
2pt割合46.81%39.39%
ペリメタ割合8.51%6.06%
3pt割合44.68%40.91%
FT割合8.51%19.70%
FT獲得率17.39%43.40%
eFG%62.32%50.00%
ORB%29.4%32.4%
OFFRtg137.396.4
NetRtg40.91-40.91
TS%63.27%52.28%
pace68.4468.44
AST%43.60%43.59%
HOMEeFG%62.32%
HOMETS%63.27%
AWAYeFG50.00%
AWAYTS%52.3%
TOV%7.3%24.8%
POSSESSION68.4468.44
Shot Chances79.2880.12
攻撃成功回数74.2863.12
AST/ TOV3.600.82
TOM1.91.0
LiveTOV%5.84%11.69%
DeadTOV%1.46%13.15%
FT Freq31.06%53.26%
PfTRtg1.120.60
FTD%7.11%16.03%
HOMEFT%66.70%
AWAYFT%56.50%
HOFFRtg137.34
AOFFRtg96.4
HOME2FG%59.46%
HOME3FG%43.80%
AWAY2FG%50.00%
AWAY3FG%33.30%

GAME3は、東京が千葉のDFの影響を受け3ポイントを打たされていたものの、決定率はシーズン平均よりも高い結果を出してくらいつき、オフェンスリバウンドからのセカンドチャンス、フリースローも獲得していたが、TOV24.8%(ポゼッションの1/4がTOV)ではさすがに厳しく千葉の勝利となった。
この日千葉はほぼすべてにおいて東京を圧倒しORtg137/DRtg96.4/NetRtg40.91というモンスタースタッツを記録

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