スポンサーリンク

【数字で見るBリーグ】激突天皇杯’23!宇都宮ブレックスVS千葉ジェッツ 徹底予想

スポンサーリンク
Bリーグ
スポンサーリンク
スポンサーリンク

スタッツ比較

オフェンススタッツ比較

宇都宮千葉
3FG%33.78%34.03%
FT%69.41%74.23%
2FG%47.08%56.11%
PfT%16.18%19.66%
PitP%42.17%39.55%
SCP%17.5%16.9%
SCP Rtg1.01.1
FBP%11.64%14.06%
2ptA%56.18%46.25%
3ptA%34.34%42.67%
2pt割合51.79%45.68%
ペリメタ割合9.62%6.13%
3pt割合33.48%38.01%
FT割合14.73%16.31%
FT獲得率24.08%28.76%
eFG%48.29%53.62%
ORB%33.0%35.3%
OFFRtg106.1120.1
NetRtg-2.0318.39
TS%51.22%57.00%
pace67.2572.4
AST%57.39%51.07%
HOMEeFG%47.96%54.77%
HOMETS%50.82%57.61%
AWAYeFG48.62%52.47%
AWAYTS%51.6%56.4%
TOV%16.9%15.0%
POSSESSION67.4972.67
Shot Chances81.1987.41
攻撃成功回数69.8176.50
AST/ TOV1.741.95
TOM1.52.2
LiveTOV%9.14%8.42%
DeadTOV%7.72%6.55%
FT Freq35.48%43.12%
PfTRtg1.051.29
FTD%9.48%11.08%
HOMEFT%71.34%70.29%
AWAYFT%68.49%76.78%
HOFFRtg106.36118.21
AOFFRtg105.8122.0
H2FG%46.29%56.31%
H3FG%33.85%35.43%
A2FG%47.86%55.92%
A3FG%33.54%32.66%

ほぼほぼ全てのスタッツで千葉が上回っています。3ptが多い千葉と2ptが多い宇都宮と、好対照なチーム。

ディフェンススタッツ比較

数値が低い方が高評価になります

宇都宮千葉
Opp2ptFG%51.44%49.50%
Opp3ptFG%32.67%32.01%
OppPfT%15.94%16.16%
OppPitP%17.47%16.91%
OppSCP%15.7%14.6%
OPPSCP Rtg1.081.06
OppFBP%12.07%15.05%
Opp2ptA%53.83%53.21%
Opp3ptA%35.43%36.64%
Opp2pt割合51.11%50.52%
Oppペリメタ割合8.72%7.23%
Opp3pt割合32.04%33.26%
OppFT割合16.85%16.95%
OppFT獲得率27.67%26.15%
DRB%70.82%71.83%
DFFRtg108.13101.71
OppTS%53.88%52.32%
OppAST%53.68%55.62%
HOppeFG%47.79%49.77%
HOppTS%51.60%53.41%
AOppeFG%52.69%47.75%
AOppTS%56.15%51.23%
Opp攻撃成功回数67.9570.55
OppAST/ TOV1.841.50
OppPfTRtg1.01.1
OppFTD%10.74%10.15%
OppLiveTOV%8.26%9.04%
OppDeadTOV%7.97%9.89%
HDFFRtg107.5103.9
ADFFRtg108.799.5
HOppFT%74.93%73.44%
AOppFT%72.49%74.99%
HOpp2FG%49.4%47.5%
HOpp3FG%30.3%35.9%
AOpp2FG%53.5%51.5%
AOpp3FG%35.1%28.1%

ディフェンス戦略としては似ているチーム。
宇都宮はホームでの被決定率が低く、千葉はアウェイゲームでの被決定率が低い傾向にあります

敗戦傾向

勝利平均と敗戦してしまった試合の平均の差分をとり、大きく差分があった値についてピックアップし分析したいと思います

宇都宮ブレックス

勝敗勝利平均敗戦平均 平均との差分
PTS76.966.25-10.63
FGM28.624.5-4.09
FGA64.961.25-3.63
FG%44.06%40.01%-4.05%
3FGM8.87.375-1.45
3FGA23.224.6251.45
3FG%37.39%30.19%-7.21%
FTM10.99.875-1.01
FTA15.314.6875-0.61
FT%71.91%67.59%-4.32%
OR13.811.3125-2.45
DR25.823.3125-2.51
TR39.634.625-4.96
AS20.517.5-2.97
TO11.111.750.69
ST6.25.25-0.93
2FGM19.817.125-2.64
2FGA41.736.625-5.08
2FG%47.36%47.07%-0.28%
Opp2ptFG%48.45%55.14%6.69%
Opp3ptFG%31.26%33.82%2.55%
PfT12.7110.63-2.08
PitP32.727.375-5.33
SCP159.875-5.13
FBP9.17.75-1.31
PfT%16.4%16.2%-0.2%
OppPfT%16.8%15.3%-1.4%
PitP%42.82%41.46%-1.36%
OppPitP%42.22%42.79%0.57%
SCP%19.38%14.82%-4.55%
OppSCP%17.20%15.12%-2.07%
SCP Rtg1.090.91-0.17
OPPSCP Rtg1.021.200.18
FBP%11.77%11.75%-0.03%
OppFBP%11.00%13.01%2.01%
2ptA%58.32%53.97%-4.35%
Opp2ptA%54.56%52.92%-1.63%
3ptA%32.31%36.40%4.09%
Opp3ptA%36.16%34.88%-1.28%
2pt割合51.75%51.85%0.10%
Opp2pt割合51.69%50.91%-0.78%
ペリメタ割合8.93%10.39%1.46%
Oppペリメタ割合9.47%8.12%-1.35%
3pt割合33.95%33.08%-0.87%
Opp3pt割合33.06%30.88%-2.19%
FT割合14.30%15.06%0.76%
OppFT割合15.25%18.21%2.97%
FT獲得率23.66%24.61%0.96%
OppFT獲得率23.53%31.87%8.34%
eFG%50.84%46.00%-4.84%
OppeFG%47.65%53.12%5.47%
eFG差分3.19%-7.12%-10.31%
Opppts68.8877.638.74
ORB%36.68%29.30%-7.38%
OppORB%29.73%29.66%-0.07%
DRB%70.27%70.34%0.07%
OppDRB%63.32%70.70%7.38%
OFFRtg113.5998.75-14.84
DFFRtg101.52115.3513.83
NetRtg12.07-16.60-28.67
TORtg16.417.51.09
TS%53.7%48.9%-0.05
OppTS%51.0%56.9%0.06
pace67.1967.230.04
AST%58.23%56.60%-1.63%
OppAST%53.59%53.42%-0.17%
HOMEeFG%50.90%45.81%-5.09%
HOMETS%53.76%48.55%-5.21%
AWAYeFG50.78%46.19%-4.60%
AWAYTS%53.69%49.31%-4.38%
HOppeFG%%45.49%50.04%4.55%
HOppTS%48.72%54.12%5.40%
AOppeFG%49.58%56.20%6.62%
AOppTS%53.01%59.68%6.67%
TOV%16.36%17.45%1.09%
OppTOV%17.86%14.87%-3.00%
POSSESSION67.6767.23-0.44
OppPOSSESSION67.6767.23-0.44
Shot Chances82.6779.46-3.21
Opp Shot Chances79.7678.46-1.30
攻撃成功回数71.6167.71-3.90
Opp攻撃成功回数67.6468.400.75
AST/ TOV1.901.58-0.32
OppAST/ TOV1.482.170.69
TOM1.551.46-0.09
TDM1.491.620.13
VPS116.93101.23-15.69
OppVPS104.01115.4611.44
ASTRtg30.3226.11-4.21
OppASTRtg25.028.73.6
P %42.23%36.54%-5.69%
OppP %37.45%41.28%3.84%
LiveTOV割合51.62%57.40%5.78%
DeadTOV割合48.38%42.60%-5.78%
LiveTOV%8.44%9.99%1.55%
DeadTOV%7.91%7.46%-0.45%
FT Freq36.2%34.9%-1.3%
OR Chances37.438.61.21
DR Chances37.033.4-3.56
Diff R Chances0.45.14.77
PIE0.60.4-0.18
FGM +FTD35.331.0-4.36
OppPTS68.977.68.74
OppFGM25.427.82.40
OppFGA61.460.1-1.29
OppFG%0.410.460.05
Opp3FGM7.538.060.53
Opp3FGA24.2923.81-0.48
Opp3FG%31.3%33.8%0.03
OppFTM10.5313.943.41
OppFTA14.2918.944.64
OppFT%73.2%73.3%0.00
OppOR11.210.1-1.05
OppDR23.627.33.66
OppTR34.837.42.61
OppAS17.119.32.25
OppTO12.110.1-2.06
OppST5.76.81.04
PfTRtg1.01.00.00
OppPfTRtg1.11.0-0.07
FTD%9.37%9.63%0.26%
OppFTD%9.29%12.20%2.91%
HOMEFT%72.34%70.09%-2.25%
AWAYFT%71.52%65.09%-6.43%
OppLiveTOV割合51.30%49.49%-1.80%
OppDeadTOV割合48.70%50.51%1.80%
OppLiveTOV%9.12%7.67%-1.45%
OppDeadTOV%8.7%7.2%-1.5%
HOFFRtg114.299.8-14.41
HDFFRtg101.0114.413.35
AOFFRtg113.097.7-15.33
ADFFRtg102.0116.314.37
H2FG%46.24%46.82%0.58%
H3FG%38.88%29.70%-9.18%
A2FG%48.35%47.32%-1.03%
A3FG%36.08%30.68%-5.40%
HOppFT%72.61%75.50%2.89%
AOppFT%73.81%71.01%-2.80%
HOpp2FG%47.18%52.37%5.20%
HOpp3FG%28.11%31.46%3.35%
AOpp2FG%49.58%57.91%8.33%
AOpp3FG%34.07%36.18%2.11%

攻守両面で同じくらいスタッツがネガティブな結果になってしまっていますがどちらかと言えばオフェンスに引っ張られているように見えます。2ptが平均して5本少なく、3ptを多く打たされたゲームで敗戦する傾向が見えています(打たされた3ptは落ちやすくなる傾向)。特にオフェンスリバウンドからSCPやPitPが5点以上の差が出ています。
ディフェンスでは、被FTポゼッションが多くペイントを攻略された場合に敗戦する傾向が強く、
特にアウェイゲームでの被決定率が高い傾向にあります。
ペースやアシストなどに差分は見られませんでした

千葉ジェッツ

勝敗勝利平均敗戦平均 平均との差分
PTS88.12577.25-10.88
FGM31.2528-3.25
FGA67.9269.251.33
FG%46.09%40.33%-5.76%
3FGM11.219-2.21
3FGA32.9231.25-1.67
3FG%34.12%28.90%-5.22%
FTM14.4212.25-2.17
FTA19.5416.25-3.29
FT%72.97%75.48%2.51%
OR13.2513.750.50
DR28.62520-8.63
TR41.87533.75-8.13
AS20.5417.75-2.79
TO119-2.00
ST6.4281.58
2FGM20.0419-1.04
2FGA35383.00
2FG%57.54%50.20%-7.34%
Opp2ptFG%49.23%54.95%5.72%
Opp3ptFG%30.56%40.83%10.27%
PfT16.9216.5-0.42
PitP34.9233-1.92
SCP13.87515.251.38
FBP12.4612-0.46
PfT%19.39%21.39%2.0%
OppPfT%16.73%12.03%-4.7%
PitP%39.99%42.23%2.24%
OppPitP%43.66%41.51%-2.15%
SCP%15.84%19.30%3.46%
OppSCP%14.99%15.43%0.44%
SCP Rtg1.041.110.07
OPPSCP Rtg1.071.220.15
FBP%14.46%15.66%1.21%
OppFBP%15.45%11.00%-4.45%
2ptA%45.67%49.53%3.86%
Opp2ptA%51.94%56.88%4.93%
3ptA%43.07%41.05%-2.03%
Opp3ptA%38.82%32.09%-6.73%
2pt割合45.77%48.61%2.84%
Opp2pt割合50.28%51.27%0.99%
ペリメタ割合5.78%6.38%0.60%
Oppペリメタ割合6.62%9.76%3.14%
3pt割合37.98%35.38%-2.60%
Opp3pt割合34.90%32.04%-2.86%
FT割合16.25%16.00%-0.24%
OppFT割合14.82%16.70%1.88%
FT獲得率29.32%23.73%-5.59%
OppFT獲得率23.44%28.22%4.78%
eFG%54.39%46.85%-7.54%
OppeFG%47.79%57.49%9.70%
Opppts7285.2513.25
ORB%34.93%32.13%-2.80%
OppORB%27.11%34.86%7.75%
DRB%72.89%65.14%-7.75%
OppDRB%65.07%67.87%2.80%
OFFRtg120.98109.08-11.89
DFFRtg98.70120.3921.70
NetRtg22.28-11.31-33.59
TORtg15.0512.62-2.43
TS%57.67%50.51%-0.07
OppTS%50.93%61.24%0.10
pace73.0170.77-2.25
AST%51.80%50.38%-1.41%
OppAST%57.10%52.99%-4.11%
HOMEeFG%55.66%49.88%-5.77%
HOMETS%58.10%53.50%-4.59%
AWAYeFG53.13%43.82%-9.31%
AWAYTS%57.25%47.52%-9.73%
HOppeFG%47.25%63.75%16.50%
HOppTS%50.48%65.39%14.91%
AOppeFG%48.34%51.23%2.89%
AOppTS%51.38%57.08%5.70%
TOV%15.05%12.62%-2.43%
OppTOV%18.97%19.41%0.44%
POSSESSION73.0170.77-2.25
OppPOSSESSION73.0170.77-2.25
Shot Chances87.5285.40-2.11
Opp Shot Chances84.5783.45-1.12
攻撃成功回数76.51576.4-0.12
Opp攻撃成功回数70.6969.70-0.99
AST/ TOV1.952.110.17
OppAST/ TOV1.531.530.01
TOM2.371.54-0.83
TDM2.871.76-1.11
VPS130.45111.41-19.04
OppVPS107.70125.4217.72
ASTRtg28.1325.05-3.08
OppASTRtg25.5829.033.5
P %42.89%39.55%-3.34%
OppP %36.27%43.79%7.52%
LiveTOV割合54.37%64.41%10.04%
DeadTOV割合45.63%35.59%-10.04%
LiveTOV%8.11%8.09%-0.02%
DeadTOV%6.94%4.53%-2.41%
FT Freq43.93%40.19%-3.7%
OR Chances37.87542.54.63
DR Chances39.3331-8.33
PIE61.60%43.17%-0.18
FGM +FTD39.8535.15-4.70
OppPTS7285.2513.25
OppFGM26.46314.54
OppFGA64.1762-2.17
OppFG%41.24%50.03%8.78%
Opp3FGM8.429.250.83
Opp3FGA27.37522.25-5.13
Opp3FG%30.56%40.83%10.27%
OppFTM10.67143.33
OppFTA14.8317.52.67
OppFT%72.45%79.60%7.15%
OppOR10.71110.29
OppDR24.6328.754.13
OppTR35.3339.754.42
OppAS18.6720.51.83
OppTO13.8813.75-0.13
OppST5.925.75-0.17
PfTRtg1.2661.229-0.04
OppPfTRtg1.0921.1340.04
FTD%11.25%9.42%-1.83%
OppFTD%9.24%11.04%1.80%
HOMEFT%70%72%2.77%
AWAYFT%76%79%2.25%
OppLiveTOV割合45.53%58.69%13.16%
OppDeadTOV割合54.47%41.31%-13.16%
OppLiveTOV%8.76%11.32%2.55%
OppDeadTOV%10.20%8.10%-2.1%
HOFFRtg119.25113.58-5.67
HDFFRtg98.48125.8327.35
AOFFRtg122.71104.59-18.12
ADFFRtg98.91114.9616.05
H2FG%57.38%58.86%1.47%
H3FG%35.98%26.60%-9.38%
A2FG%57.70%41.54%-16.16%
A3FG%32.26%31.20%-1.06%
HOppFT%73.33%70.00%-3.33%
AOppFT%71.58%89.20%17.63%
HOpp2FG%46.33%56.97%10.64%
HOpp3FG%32.14%51.30%19.16%
AOpp2FG%52.13%52.93%0.80%
AOpp3FG%28.98%30.35%1.38%

オフェンスよりも、ディフェンスの崩壊が敗戦を招いています。
2ptの被試投本数が5本以上多く打たれた上に、プルアップ3を決められたゲームを落としています。
よく敗因に挙げられる相手のアシストやターンオーバーを犯したポゼッションに有意な差は見られませんでした。
面白い傾向として、2ptでもペリメタを上手く使われたゲームに敗戦しています。
相手のオフェンスリバウンドは多く獲得されているものの、そこからのSCPが増えていないためショット自体は抑えられています。
オフェンスでは、やはり3ptが打てていない試合や、フリースローが2ポゼッションほど少なくなっている試合での敗戦が目立ち、3ptの決定率にも大きく左右されています。
オフェンスリバウンド獲得率自体はそこまで差はないものの、1本目のショットが入っていないため相対的にSCPの割合が高く見えているためORは勝敗にそこまで影響を与えてはいません(普通に獲得できていても敗戦している)

対戦分析

宇都宮千葉W
3FG%17.90%33.30%
FT%63.60%69.60%
2FG%51.43%55.00%
PfT%13.79%21.84%
PitP%44.83%45.98%
SCP%15.5%19.5%
SCP Rtg0.61.1
FBP%5.17%18.39%
2ptA%51.59%51.87%
3ptA%41.27%35.01%
2pt割合62.07%50.57%
ペリメタ割合17.24%4.60%
3pt割合25.86%31.03%
FT割合12.07%18.39%
FT獲得率17.46%34.33%
eFG%40.48%52.99%
ORB%34.1%40.5%
OFFRtg84.4126.7
NetRtg-42.2242.22
TS%42.75%56.41%
pace6868.46%6868.46%
AST%43.10%48.64%
HOMEeFG%40.48%
HOMETS%42.75%
AWAYeFG52.99%
AWAYTS%56.4%
TOV%21.8%13.1%
POSSESSION68.6868.68
Shot Chances82.8486.12
攻撃成功回数67.8477.12
AST/ TOV0.802.22
TOM0.62.0
LiveTOV%11.65%7.28%
DeadTOV%10.19%5.82%
FT Freq26.89%50.60%
PfTRtg0.891.27
FTD%7.13%13.12%
HOMEFT%63.60%
AWAYFT%69.60%
HOFFRtg84.44
AOFFRtg126.7
H2FG%51.43%
H3FG%17.90%
A2FG%55.00%
A3FG%33.30%

リーグ序盤ではあるものの、大差が着いた勝負になりました。
苦しい3ptを多く打たされての敗戦は、宇都宮の敗戦傾向と合致しています。
オフェンスリバウンドを35%近く獲得しているものの、千葉にも獲得率で大きく水を開けられてしまったため相殺されています。
逆に千葉は2点を締め出し、プルアップ3も上手く抑えられ敗戦傾向から脱しています。ペリメタを多く取られているように見えますが、2ptの試投割合自体が非常に少ないため相対的に上昇しているだけで上手く決められているわけではなさそうです。
オフェンスでは、3pt試投割合が千葉の敗戦傾向をなぞっているものの、セカンドチャンスが多かった+フリースロー獲得が勝利傾向を大幅に上回ったことから相殺されているものと思われます。

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